Recent forecast models indicate a cooler air mass and increased cloud cover ahead of October 3 in São Paulo, supporting the leading market-implied probability for an overnight low of 11°C or below. Multiple runs highlight potential for enhanced radiational cooling under clearer breaks or stronger southeasterly flow, with some ensembles projecting minima near or below 12°C amid scattered showers. This positioning aligns with early October climatology where lows average 13–15°C but can drop further during frontal passages, while higher bins around 15–16°C reflect uncertainty in exact clearing timing and dew point depressions. Updated National Meteorological Institute guidance and additional model cycles over the next 48 hours will likely refine these trader-assessed odds.