Current AEMET and ensemble model guidance indicate a post-heatwave cooling trend, with Madrid's maximum temperature on June 26 expected near 32–33 °C under weakening southerly flow and increasing Atlantic influence. Official AEMET outlooks list a 32 °C high, while global models such as ECMWF and GFS cluster in the low- to mid-30s °C range, reflecting typical diurnal peaks measured at Retiro or Barajas stations. Recent observations show a sharp drop from the 38.3 °C peak on June 22, tightening the distribution around these values and explaining why 32 °C and 33 °C together command over 75 % of market-implied probability. Resolution hinges on the single official daily maximum reported by AEMET, with limited upside risk from residual warm advection before frontal passage.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest temperature in Madrid on June 26?
Highest temperature in Madrid on June 26?
33°C 100.0%
35°C <1%
29°C or below <1%
30°C <1%
$93,965 KL.
$93,965 KL.
Jun 26, 2026
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
100%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C or higher
<1%
33°C 100.0%
35°C <1%
29°C or below <1%
30°C <1%
$93,965 KL.
$93,965 KL.
Jun 26, 2026
29°C or below
$1,739 KL.
<1%
30°C
$4,362 KL.
<1%
31°C
$7,130 KL.
<1%
32°C
$13,301 KL.
<1%
33°C
$31,581 KL.
100%
34°C
$13,436 KL.
<1%
35°C
$7,574 KL.
<1%
36°C
$5,466 KL.
<1%
37°C
$2,922 KL.
<1%
38°C
$2,661 KL.
<1%
39°C or higher
$3,795 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current AEMET and ensemble model guidance indicate a post-heatwave cooling trend, with Madrid's maximum temperature on June 26 expected near 32–33 °C under weakening southerly flow and increasing Atlantic influence. Official AEMET outlooks list a 32 °C high, while global models such as ECMWF and GFS cluster in the low- to mid-30s °C range, reflecting typical diurnal peaks measured at Retiro or Barajas stations. Recent observations show a sharp drop from the 38.3 °C peak on June 22, tightening the distribution around these values and explaining why 32 °C and 33 °C together command over 75 % of market-implied probability. Resolution hinges on the single official daily maximum reported by AEMET, with limited upside risk from residual warm advection before frontal passage.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Jun 24, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Khối lượng
$93,965Ngày kết thúc
Jun 26, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 24, 2026, 1:03 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current AEMET and ensemble model guidance indicate a post-heatwave cooling trend, with Madrid's maximum temperature on June 26 expected near 32–33 °C under weakening southerly flow and increasing Atlantic influence. Official AEMET outlooks list a 32 °C high, while global models such as ECMWF and GFS cluster in the low- to mid-30s °C range, reflecting typical diurnal peaks measured at Retiro or Barajas stations. Recent observations show a sharp drop from the 38.3 °C peak on June 22, tightening the distribution around these values and explaining why 32 °C and 33 °C together command over 75 % of market-implied probability. Resolution hinges on the single official daily maximum reported by AEMET, with limited upside risk from residual warm advection before frontal passage.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$93,965Ngày kết thúc
Jun 26, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 24, 2026, 1:03 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current AEMET and ensemble model guidance indicate a post-heatwave cooling trend, with Madrid's maximum temperature on June 26 expected near 32–33 °C under weakening southerly flow and increasing Atlantic influence. Official AEMET outlooks list a 32 °C high, while global models such as ECMWF and GFS cluster in the low- to mid-30s °C range, reflecting typical diurnal peaks measured at Retiro or Barajas stations. Recent observations show a sharp drop from the 38.3 °C peak on June 22, tightening the distribution around these values and explaining why 32 °C and 33 °C together command over 75 % of market-implied probability. Resolution hinges on the single official daily maximum reported by AEMET, with limited upside risk from residual warm advection before frontal passage.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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