**The market-implied distribution centers on 29–31 °C (combined ~80 % probability), consistent with official PAGASA forecasts and the ongoing southwest monsoon (habagat) that is suppressing daytime maxima across Luzon.** PAGASA’s extended outlook for Metro Manila on 11 August lists a daytime range of 25–30 °C (or up to 32 °C in some model runs) with a 60–90 % chance of rain, reflecting persistent cloud cover, frequent showers, and reduced insolation that limit surface heating. Historical August climatology shows an average daily high near 31 °C, but the current monsoon regime—amplified by distant tropical systems—typically shaves 1–3 °C off peak temperatures through evaporative cooling and blocked solar radiation. Recent heavy-rainfall advisories for 9–11 August reinforce this pattern, keeping the highest temperature most likely in the narrow 29–31 °C window rather than the 33 °C+ tail or sub-28 °C floor. Traders are therefore pricing the modest cooling effect of widespread monsoon convection as the dominant near-term driver ahead of any final 11 August observation.