Recent National Environment Agency advisories highlight prevailing southwest monsoon conditions favoring drier weather and daily maximum temperatures of 33–34 °C through early August, establishing the primary driver behind the tight market split between 32 °C and 33 °C. These official outlooks incorporate regional wind patterns and reduced rainfall that limit cloud cover and enhance daytime heating relative to the 31 °C August climatological average. Short-term model guidance shows modest spread due to the timing and intensity of localized afternoon thundery showers, which can suppress peaks by 1–2 °C on any given day. Traders are therefore weighting the balance between sustained fair conditions and residual convective activity expected in the next 48 hours before resolution.