Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS show a trough crossing central Europe, advecting cooler maritime air and increasing mid-level cloud cover over Warsaw by July 5, which limits surface insolation and caps maximum temperatures near 20–21 °C. Scattered showers or isolated thunderstorms expected during peak heating hours further suppress readings by enhancing evaporative cooling and reducing the diurnal temperature range. These conditions deviate from the July climatological average high of ~24 °C, explaining why 20 °C and 21 °C hold the highest implied probabilities while 22 °C+ remain low-single-digit outcomes. Minor model spread in precipitation timing and boundary-layer mixing creates the tight clustering around 19–21 °C.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest temperature in Warsaw on July 5?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on July 5?
20°C 45%
21°C 28%
19°C 14.2%
22°C 12%
MỚI
$24,571 KL.
MỚI
$24,571 KL.
Jul 5, 2026
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
14%
20°C
45%
21°C
28%
22°C
12%
23°C
2%
24°C or higher
1%
20°C 45%
21°C 28%
19°C 14.2%
22°C 12%
MỚI
$24,571 KL.
MỚI
$24,571 KL.
Jul 5, 2026
14°C or below
$597 KL.
<1%
15°C
$593 KL.
<1%
16°C
$797 KL.
<1%
17°C
$651 KL.
<1%
18°C
$2,527 KL.
1%
19°C
$2,556 KL.
14%
20°C
$2,975 KL.
45%
21°C
$8,821 KL.
28%
22°C
$1,991 KL.
12%
23°C
$1,544 KL.
2%
24°C or higher
$1,519 KL.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS show a trough crossing central Europe, advecting cooler maritime air and increasing mid-level cloud cover over Warsaw by July 5, which limits surface insolation and caps maximum temperatures near 20–21 °C. Scattered showers or isolated thunderstorms expected during peak heating hours further suppress readings by enhancing evaporative cooling and reducing the diurnal temperature range. These conditions deviate from the July climatological average high of ~24 °C, explaining why 20 °C and 21 °C hold the highest implied probabilities while 22 °C+ remain low-single-digit outcomes. Minor model spread in precipitation timing and boundary-layer mixing creates the tight clustering around 19–21 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Jul 3, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Khối lượng
$24,571Ngày kết thúc
Jul 5, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 3, 2026, 12:02 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS show a trough crossing central Europe, advecting cooler maritime air and increasing mid-level cloud cover over Warsaw by July 5, which limits surface insolation and caps maximum temperatures near 20–21 °C. Scattered showers or isolated thunderstorms expected during peak heating hours further suppress readings by enhancing evaporative cooling and reducing the diurnal temperature range. These conditions deviate from the July climatological average high of ~24 °C, explaining why 20 °C and 21 °C hold the highest implied probabilities while 22 °C+ remain low-single-digit outcomes. Minor model spread in precipitation timing and boundary-layer mixing creates the tight clustering around 19–21 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$24,571Ngày kết thúc
Jul 5, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 3, 2026, 12:02 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS show a trough crossing central Europe, advecting cooler maritime air and increasing mid-level cloud cover over Warsaw by July 5, which limits surface insolation and caps maximum temperatures near 20–21 °C. Scattered showers or isolated thunderstorms expected during peak heating hours further suppress readings by enhancing evaporative cooling and reducing the diurnal temperature range. These conditions deviate from the July climatological average high of ~24 °C, explaining why 20 °C and 21 °C hold the highest implied probabilities while 22 °C+ remain low-single-digit outcomes. Minor model spread in precipitation timing and boundary-layer mixing creates the tight clustering around 19–21 °C.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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