Global seismic rates establish the baseline for this market, with roughly 40–60 magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes occurring worldwide each year on average, yielding an expected 0.7–0.9 events in any given seven-day window. This Poisson-like distribution underpins the market-implied probabilities favoring zero or one event. Recent activity includes a magnitude 7.8 quake off the Philippines on June 8 and elevated M5+ counts in early June, yet short-term clustering remains statistically modest and unpredictable. USGS data confirm no reliable short-term forecasts exist, so trader consensus reflects historical frequency tempered by the absence of exceptional precursors or aftershock sequences that could meaningfully shift the near-term rate.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes June 15 - June 21?
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes June 15 - June 21?
0 48%
1 33%
2 13%
3 3.6%
MỚI
MỚI
Jun 21, 2026
0
48%
1
33%
2
13%
3
4%
4
3%
5
2%
>5
1%
0 48%
1 33%
2 13%
3 3.6%
MỚI
MỚI
Jun 21, 2026
0
$2 KL.
48%
1
$3 KL.
33%
2
$10 KL.
13%
3
$117 KL.
4%
4
$1,223 KL.
3%
5
$154 KL.
2%
>5
$168 KL.
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 15, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismic rates establish the baseline for this market, with roughly 40–60 magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes occurring worldwide each year on average, yielding an expected 0.7–0.9 events in any given seven-day window. This Poisson-like distribution underpins the market-implied probabilities favoring zero or one event. Recent activity includes a magnitude 7.8 quake off the Philippines on June 8 and elevated M5+ counts in early June, yet short-term clustering remains statistically modest and unpredictable. USGS data confirm no reliable short-term forecasts exist, so trader consensus reflects historical frequency tempered by the absence of exceptional precursors or aftershock sequences that could meaningfully shift the near-term rate.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 15, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Thị trường mở: Jun 12, 2026, 1:51 PM ET
Khối lượng
$1,676Ngày kết thúc
Jun 21, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 12, 2026, 1:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 15, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismic rates establish the baseline for this market, with roughly 40–60 magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes occurring worldwide each year on average, yielding an expected 0.7–0.9 events in any given seven-day window. This Poisson-like distribution underpins the market-implied probabilities favoring zero or one event. Recent activity includes a magnitude 7.8 quake off the Philippines on June 8 and elevated M5+ counts in early June, yet short-term clustering remains statistically modest and unpredictable. USGS data confirm no reliable short-term forecasts exist, so trader consensus reflects historical frequency tempered by the absence of exceptional precursors or aftershock sequences that could meaningfully shift the near-term rate.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 15, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Khối lượng
$1,676Ngày kết thúc
Jun 21, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 12, 2026, 1:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Global seismic rates establish the baseline for this market, with roughly 40–60 magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes occurring worldwide each year on average, yielding an expected 0.7–0.9 events in any given seven-day window. This Poisson-like distribution underpins the market-implied probabilities favoring zero or one event. Recent activity includes a magnitude 7.8 quake off the Philippines on June 8 and elevated M5+ counts in early June, yet short-term clustering remains statistically modest and unpredictable. USGS data confirm no reliable short-term forecasts exist, so trader consensus reflects historical frequency tempered by the absence of exceptional precursors or aftershock sequences that could meaningfully shift the near-term rate.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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