Global seismic monitoring from the U.S. Geological Survey shows five confirmed magnitude 7.0+ events through mid-May 2026, clustered along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones in Japan, Indonesia, Vanuatu, Tonga, and Malaysia. This early pace aligns with the long-term average of roughly 16 such earthquakes annually, projecting about eight by June 30, yet a four-week lull since the April 20 Japan event has reinforced trader focus on subdued activity. Inherent Poisson variability in tectonic stress release means short-term quiescence does not rule out rapid upticks, but current USGS catalogs and absence of notable foreshock clusters support the market-implied lead for eight or fewer total events through the resolution date.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHow many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30? (Higher Strikes)
How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30? (Higher Strikes)
≤8 50%
10 12%
11 12%
9 9%
$90,305 KL.
$90,305 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
≤8
54%
9
21%
10
12%
11
12%
12
7%
13
3%
14+
2%
≤8 50%
10 12%
11 12%
9 9%
$90,305 KL.
$90,305 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
≤8
$25,437 KL.
54%
9
$17,548 KL.
21%
10
$8,380 KL.
12%
11
$28,064 KL.
12%
12
$4,396 KL.
7%
13
$2,763 KL.
3%
14+
$3,718 KL.
2%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Global seismic monitoring from the U.S. Geological Survey shows five confirmed magnitude 7.0+ events through mid-May 2026, clustered along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones in Japan, Indonesia, Vanuatu, Tonga, and Malaysia. This early pace aligns with the long-term average of roughly 16 such earthquakes annually, projecting about eight by June 30, yet a four-week lull since the April 20 Japan event has reinforced trader focus on subdued activity. Inherent Poisson variability in tectonic stress release means short-term quiescence does not rule out rapid upticks, but current USGS catalogs and absence of notable foreshock clusters support the market-implied lead for eight or fewer total events through the resolution date.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Thị trường mở: Apr 2, 2026, 6:26 PM ET
Khối lượng
$90,305Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 2, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Global seismic monitoring from the U.S. Geological Survey shows five confirmed magnitude 7.0+ events through mid-May 2026, clustered along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones in Japan, Indonesia, Vanuatu, Tonga, and Malaysia. This early pace aligns with the long-term average of roughly 16 such earthquakes annually, projecting about eight by June 30, yet a four-week lull since the April 20 Japan event has reinforced trader focus on subdued activity. Inherent Poisson variability in tectonic stress release means short-term quiescence does not rule out rapid upticks, but current USGS catalogs and absence of notable foreshock clusters support the market-implied lead for eight or fewer total events through the resolution date.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Khối lượng
$90,305Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 2, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Global seismic monitoring from the U.S. Geological Survey shows five confirmed magnitude 7.0+ events through mid-May 2026, clustered along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones in Japan, Indonesia, Vanuatu, Tonga, and Malaysia. This early pace aligns with the long-term average of roughly 16 such earthquakes annually, projecting about eight by June 30, yet a four-week lull since the April 20 Japan event has reinforced trader focus on subdued activity. Inherent Poisson variability in tectonic stress release means short-term quiescence does not rule out rapid upticks, but current USGS catalogs and absence of notable foreshock clusters support the market-implied lead for eight or fewer total events through the resolution date.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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