Recent Tesla deliveries rebounded in key export markets following Q1 2026's 358,000-unit miss and inventory buildup, with Giga Shanghai posting 36% year-over-year growth in Model 3/Y sales and European registrations surging over 100% in April. This positions the 375k–400k band at 29.5% implied probability as the current leader, while the combined 450k+ outcomes at nearly 50% reflect trader bets on sustained China and Europe momentum plus full Gigafactory utilization. Persistent U.S. competition from legacy automakers and fading EV incentives create downside risk toward the 325k–350k range, with May registration data and early-July reporting serving as the next major catalysts for resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHow many Tesla deliveries in Q2 2026?
How many Tesla deliveries in Q2 2026?
375k–400k 30%
450k–475k 24.1%
475k+ 23.0%
350k–375k 15.3%
$41,747 KL.
$41,747 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
<300k
7%
300k–325k
1%
325k–350k
9%
350k–375k
15%
375k–400k
30%
400k–425k
14%
425k–450k
14%
450k–475k
24%
475k+
23%
375k–400k 30%
450k–475k 24.1%
475k+ 23.0%
350k–375k 15.3%
$41,747 KL.
$41,747 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
<300k
$5,209 KL.
7%
300k–325k
$3,033 KL.
1%
325k–350k
$3,129 KL.
9%
350k–375k
$7,488 KL.
15%
375k–400k
$3,917 KL.
30%
400k–425k
$8,221 KL.
14%
425k–450k
$4,129 KL.
14%
450k–475k
$3,202 KL.
24%
475k+
$3,419 KL.
23%
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026.
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.Recent Tesla deliveries rebounded in key export markets following Q1 2026's 358,000-unit miss and inventory buildup, with Giga Shanghai posting 36% year-over-year growth in Model 3/Y sales and European registrations surging over 100% in April. This positions the 375k–400k band at 29.5% implied probability as the current leader, while the combined 450k+ outcomes at nearly 50% reflect trader bets on sustained China and Europe momentum plus full Gigafactory utilization. Persistent U.S. competition from legacy automakers and fading EV incentives create downside risk toward the 325k–350k range, with May registration data and early-July reporting serving as the next major catalysts for resolution.
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026.
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
Thị trường mở: Apr 3, 2026, 7:38 PM ET
Khối lượng
$41,747Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 3, 2026, 7:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026.
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.Recent Tesla deliveries rebounded in key export markets following Q1 2026's 358,000-unit miss and inventory buildup, with Giga Shanghai posting 36% year-over-year growth in Model 3/Y sales and European registrations surging over 100% in April. This positions the 375k–400k band at 29.5% implied probability as the current leader, while the combined 450k+ outcomes at nearly 50% reflect trader bets on sustained China and Europe momentum plus full Gigafactory utilization. Persistent U.S. competition from legacy automakers and fading EV incentives create downside risk toward the 325k–350k range, with May registration data and early-July reporting serving as the next major catalysts for resolution.
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026.
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
If Tesla does not publish Q2 2026 delivery figures by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
Khối lượng
$41,747Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 3, 2026, 7:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Tesla deliveries rebounded in key export markets following Q1 2026's 358,000-unit miss and inventory buildup, with Giga Shanghai posting 36% year-over-year growth in Model 3/Y sales and European registrations surging over 100% in April. This positions the 375k–400k band at 29.5% implied probability as the current leader, while the combined 450k+ outcomes at nearly 50% reflect trader bets on sustained China and Europe momentum plus full Gigafactory utilization. Persistent U.S. competition from legacy automakers and fading EV incentives create downside risk toward the 325k–350k range, with May registration data and early-July reporting serving as the next major catalysts for resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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