**Trader sentiment for Chengdu’s October 9 minimum temperature remains closely balanced between a cool night (15 °C or below at 50 % implied probability) and a notably warm one (25 °C or higher at 49 %), with mid-range outcomes clustered around 34 %.** This split reflects genuine forecast uncertainty just two days out, as autumn transition brings variable cold-air intrusions and shifting cloud/rain patterns that strongly influence nocturnal radiative cooling. Recent developments include a sharp cold-air outbreak that produced a new seasonal low of 15.3 °C on October 6 in Chengdu’s western suburbs, driven by clear skies and dry northerly flow that enhanced long-wave radiation loss. Subsequent model runs show this air mass moderating by October 9, with most guidance indicating overnight lows of 17–19 °C under partly cloudy to overcast skies and light rain or drizzle. Such conditions reduce radiative cooling compared with clear nights, keeping minima higher than the early-month climatological average of ~15–16 °C. Key differentiating factors include the strength and timing of any residual cold-air advection versus the extent of cloud cover and precipitation, which trap heat near the surface in the Sichuan Basin. Wind speed and humidity also matter: lighter winds and higher moisture favor warmer minima, while clearer, drier conditions could allow temperatures to dip toward or below 15 °C. Official agency updates and the next model cycles will likely resolve the tension between these scenarios before resolution.