Current forecast models from multiple sources project overnight lows in Moscow on October 9 around 8–11°C amid southerly flow and possible showers, well above the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 3.9°C. This mild pattern stems from a lingering warm anomaly, with daytime highs potentially reaching 15–18°C before any frontal passage. However, ensemble spreads and rapid model updates near the event introduce uncertainty, as small shifts in steering patterns or cold air advection could lower minima toward or below 5°C. Traders weigh these variables against historical October variability, where early-month fronts occasionally deliver sharper drops, keeping implied probabilities tightly balanced between sub-3°C and double-digit outcomes. Updated model runs and observational data in the next 48 hours will likely refine the range.