Wellington Airport observations and climatological data show October peak gusts most often fall in the 86–95 km/h range because Cook Strait’s narrow topography funnels prevailing westerlies and northerlies, amplifying speeds during spring pressure-gradient strengthening. Early October 2026 METARs and short-range forecasts indicate only moderate gusts so far (generally below 70 km/h), keeping the month’s running maximum low while leaving ample time for a vigorous low-pressure system to push isolated peaks above 95 km/h. Model consensus and historical analogs suggest the narrow 34 %–27 % split between the two leading bins reflects genuine uncertainty over whether a single late-month event will exceed the 95 km/h threshold before October ends.