Early June conditions in Seoul remain relatively dry ahead of the East Asian monsoon (jangma) onset, which historically accounts for the majority of the month’s rainfall in its final two weeks. Trader sentiment clusters tightly around the long-term average of approximately 130 mm because official Korea Meteorological Administration guidance and ensemble models show comparable probabilities for near-normal totals versus modest increases or shortfalls depending on the precise timing, strength, and northward migration of the monsoon front. Any earlier-than-usual front arrival or additional moisture from peripheral systems could shift outcomes toward the 130–140 mm or 160 mm+ bins, while delayed onset would favor the lower ranges currently priced near 24–26 %.