Recent developments around Texas Tech quarterback Brendan Sorsby’s NCAA eligibility following gambling allegations have created the main uncertainty for a 2026 NFL supplemental draft. Sorsby has until June 30 to petition the league after potentially exhausting college options, and the NFL has not held the event in 2024 or 2025 because no qualifying players emerged. The supplemental draft occurs only when eligible prospects apply and receive league approval, typically in July ahead of training camp, with selections costing future draft picks via a lottery-based order. Trader pricing near 50% reflects the balanced chance that Sorsby either regains eligibility or sees his application denied versus proceeding and triggering the process. Any confirmed approval or additional eligible players before late June would shift momentum toward “yes,” while confirmation of no applicants would favor “no.”