**The free-market USD/IRR rate has stabilized near 2.3 million rials per dollar in mid-September amid persistently constrained Iranian oil exports.** A U.S. naval blockade has sharply reduced loadings and tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz, limiting hard-currency inflows that normally support the rial. Combined with longstanding sanctions restricting banking access and asset repatriation, plus elevated domestic inflation, this has kept depreciation pressure elevated without triggering an immediate further spike. Traders assign the highest probability (64.5%) to the 2.2–2.5 million band at month-end, reflecting the current level and absence of rapid catalysts for either meaningful appreciation or acceleration beyond that range in the remaining weeks. Lower outcomes below 2.2 million carry only 10.5% odds, consistent with structural barriers to quick recovery, while higher brackets (above 2.5 million) remain possible but less likely absent fresh escalation. The implied probabilities embed the wisdom-of-crowds assessment of these supply, sanctions, and macroeconomic dynamics.