**Trader consensus heavily favors the USD/IRR free-market rate exceeding 2.2 million rials by end-September 2026 (85.0% implied probability), with lower bands receiving minimal support.** This positioning reflects the rial’s sharp recent depreciation amid sustained external pressures. Since March 2026, the free-market rate has fallen roughly 60%, accelerating after the U.S. reinstated its naval blockade on Iranian ports in July. Oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz have collapsed from around 2 million barrels per day earlier in the year to near zero in recent months, eliminating a primary source of foreign-currency earnings and widening the gap between official rates (near 1.37–1.6 million) and street rates. Additional factors include tightened U.S. sanctions targeting regional banking channels, high inflation (reported near 66–84%), and ongoing regional conflict now in its seventh month. Iran’s central bank has signaled readiness to inject up to $2 billion to stabilize markets, but traders appear to view these measures as insufficient to reverse the trend before month-end. Historical patterns of rapid rial weakening during periods of export disruption and sanctions enforcement further support the current pricing, with few near-term catalysts evident that could restore significant hard-currency inflows.