**Saudi Arabia’s entrenched position remains the central barrier to near-term expansion.** Riyadh has repeatedly conditioned any normalization on concrete progress toward Palestinian statehood, a demand unchanged despite sustained U.S. diplomatic pressure under the second Trump administration, including attempts to link civil-nuclear cooperation to Abraham Accords accession. Ongoing regional tensions, including the aftermath of Israel-Iran hostilities and related operations in Lebanon and Syria, have further hardened Gulf calculations and reduced incentives for additional signatories. Kazakhstan’s formal accession in November 2025 and Somaliland’s December pledge represent recent additions, yet both fall outside the core Arab-state focus and have not shifted momentum toward major Muslim-majority candidates. Trader consensus reflected in the 76.8% probability for “No” before 2027 aligns with the absence of verifiable breakthroughs in bilateral talks or scheduled summits that could deliver a new signatory in the remaining months of 2026. Potential catalysts such as a comprehensive Iran-related settlement or Palestinian-track advances remain unresolved and face significant procedural and political hurdles.