Bilateral security cooperation continues to anchor trader expectations against a U.S. invasion of Mexico in 2026. The Mexican Senate recently authorized 139 U.S. troops from the 101st Airborne Division for limited joint training exercises in Chihuahua through late September, with explicit restrictions against independent operations or arrests. President Claudia Sheinbaum has repeatedly rejected unilateral U.S. military action on Mexican soil while emphasizing sovereignty and preferring coordinated efforts. U.S. border enforcement under the current administration has produced historically low crossings through expanded barriers, deterrence measures, and removals, reducing immediate pressure for cross-border strikes. Diplomatic tensions over cartels and tariffs persist but remain channeled through negotiations rather than military planning. A full-scale invasion would require major shifts in policy, congressional support, and Mexican consent that current developments do not indicate.