Trader consensus prices a U.S. invasion of Colombia in 2026 at just 6.5% probability, reflecting de-escalation since early-year rhetoric. Tensions peaked in January following U.S. military action against Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro, when President Trump suggested Colombia—labeled a "major non-NATO ally"—faced similar drug trafficking issues under President Petro, prompting Colombian vows of military defense and Petro's threats to take up arms. A February White House meeting thawed relations, with Trump praising Petro amid ongoing counternarcotics talks. No escalatory diplomatic signals, troop movements, or sanctions have emerged in recent weeks, despite Petro's April warnings of Latin American "rebellion" against U.S. pressure. Colombia's presidential election this year adds uncertainty, but absent concrete invasion triggers like border incidents or failed diplomacy, odds favor stability through year-end.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$26,294 KL.
$26,294 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
$26,294 KL.
$26,294 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a U.S. invasion of Colombia in 2026 at just 6.5% probability, reflecting de-escalation since early-year rhetoric. Tensions peaked in January following U.S. military action against Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro, when President Trump suggested Colombia—labeled a "major non-NATO ally"—faced similar drug trafficking issues under President Petro, prompting Colombian vows of military defense and Petro's threats to take up arms. A February White House meeting thawed relations, with Trump praising Petro amid ongoing counternarcotics talks. No escalatory diplomatic signals, troop movements, or sanctions have emerged in recent weeks, despite Petro's April warnings of Latin American "rebellion" against U.S. pressure. Colombia's presidential election this year adds uncertainty, but absent concrete invasion triggers like border incidents or failed diplomacy, odds favor stability through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Jan 5, 2026, 5:16 PM ET
Khối lượng
$26,294Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 5, 2026, 5:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a U.S. invasion of Colombia in 2026 at just 6.5% probability, reflecting de-escalation since early-year rhetoric. Tensions peaked in January following U.S. military action against Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro, when President Trump suggested Colombia—labeled a "major non-NATO ally"—faced similar drug trafficking issues under President Petro, prompting Colombian vows of military defense and Petro's threats to take up arms. A February White House meeting thawed relations, with Trump praising Petro amid ongoing counternarcotics talks. No escalatory diplomatic signals, troop movements, or sanctions have emerged in recent weeks, despite Petro's April warnings of Latin American "rebellion" against U.S. pressure. Colombia's presidential election this year adds uncertainty, but absent concrete invasion triggers like border incidents or failed diplomacy, odds favor stability through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$26,294Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 5, 2026, 5:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a U.S. invasion of Colombia in 2026 at just 6.5% probability, reflecting de-escalation since early-year rhetoric. Tensions peaked in January following U.S. military action against Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro, when President Trump suggested Colombia—labeled a "major non-NATO ally"—faced similar drug trafficking issues under President Petro, prompting Colombian vows of military defense and Petro's threats to take up arms. A February White House meeting thawed relations, with Trump praising Petro amid ongoing counternarcotics talks. No escalatory diplomatic signals, troop movements, or sanctions have emerged in recent weeks, despite Petro's April warnings of Latin American "rebellion" against U.S. pressure. Colombia's presidential election this year adds uncertainty, but absent concrete invasion triggers like border incidents or failed diplomacy, odds favor stability through year-end.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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