Elon Musk’s established posting rhythm of 25–35 tweets or replies per day forms the core driver behind the tightly bunched 180–239 ranges, which together command roughly 46% implied probability. July’s 840–919 monthly total on Polymarket translated to a similar daily cadence without major spikes, and early August activity shows no deviation. Absent scheduled product announcements, regulatory hearings, or platform controversies that historically trigger reply-storm surges, traders view steady engagement on X, Grok updates, and Starlink commentary as the baseline. The narrow spread among leading bins reflects uncertainty over whether a single viral thread or quiet stretch could nudge the count one bracket either way before the August 14 close.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật200-219 17%
220-239 15%
180-199 15%
240-259 14%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 14, 2026
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
4%
100-119
1%
120-139
3%
140-159
10%
160-179
11%
180-199
15%
200-219
17%
220-239
15%
240-259
14%
260-279
9%
280-299
6%
300-319
3%
320-339
3%
340-359
2%
360-379
11%
380-399
12%
400-419
11%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
200-219 17%
220-239 15%
180-199 15%
240-259 14%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 14, 2026
<20
$233 KL.
<1%
20-39
$188 KL.
<1%
40-59
$172 KL.
<1%
60-79
$72 KL.
<1%
80-99
$72 KL.
4%
100-119
$42 KL.
1%
120-139
$62 KL.
3%
140-159
$197 KL.
10%
160-179
$144 KL.
11%
180-199
$62 KL.
15%
200-219
$68 KL.
17%
220-239
$77 KL.
15%
240-259
$62 KL.
14%
260-279
$57 KL.
9%
280-299
$62 KL.
6%
300-319
$82 KL.
3%
320-339
$262 KL.
3%
340-359
$62 KL.
2%
360-379
$10 KL.
11%
380-399
$10 KL.
12%
400-419
$10 KL.
11%
420-439
$98 KL.
<1%
440-459
$72 KL.
<1%
460-479
$72 KL.
<1%
480-499
$172 KL.
<1%
500+
$256 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 7 12:00 PM ET to August 14, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s established posting rhythm of 25–35 tweets or replies per day forms the core driver behind the tightly bunched 180–239 ranges, which together command roughly 46% implied probability. July’s 840–919 monthly total on Polymarket translated to a similar daily cadence without major spikes, and early August activity shows no deviation. Absent scheduled product announcements, regulatory hearings, or platform controversies that historically trigger reply-storm surges, traders view steady engagement on X, Grok updates, and Starlink commentary as the baseline. The narrow spread among leading bins reflects uncertainty over whether a single viral thread or quiet stretch could nudge the count one bracket either way before the August 14 close.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 7 12:00 PM ET to August 14, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Thị trường mở: Aug 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Khối lượng
$2,677Ngày kết thúc
Aug 14, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 7 12:00 PM ET to August 14, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s established posting rhythm of 25–35 tweets or replies per day forms the core driver behind the tightly bunched 180–239 ranges, which together command roughly 46% implied probability. July’s 840–919 monthly total on Polymarket translated to a similar daily cadence without major spikes, and early August activity shows no deviation. Absent scheduled product announcements, regulatory hearings, or platform controversies that historically trigger reply-storm surges, traders view steady engagement on X, Grok updates, and Starlink commentary as the baseline. The narrow spread among leading bins reflects uncertainty over whether a single viral thread or quiet stretch could nudge the count one bracket either way before the August 14 close.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 7 12:00 PM ET to August 14, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Khối lượng
$2,677Ngày kết thúc
Aug 14, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s established posting rhythm of 25–35 tweets or replies per day forms the core driver behind the tightly bunched 180–239 ranges, which together command roughly 46% implied probability. July’s 840–919 monthly total on Polymarket translated to a similar daily cadence without major spikes, and early August activity shows no deviation. Absent scheduled product announcements, regulatory hearings, or platform controversies that historically trigger reply-storm surges, traders view steady engagement on X, Grok updates, and Starlink commentary as the baseline. The narrow spread among leading bins reflects uncertainty over whether a single viral thread or quiet stretch could nudge the count one bracket either way before the August 14 close.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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