**US military action against Venezuela peaked with the January 3, 2026 Operation Absolute Resolve, a targeted raid involving airstrikes on air defenses and special forces that captured Nicolás Maduro and his wife for narco-terrorism charges in New York.** This short operation installed Vice President Delcy Rodríguez as interim leader, triggered a state of emergency, and prompted partial US sanctions relief plus an oil revenue arrangement channeling proceeds through US-controlled accounts. Subsequent developments have emphasized economic pressure and cooperation on oil exports over territorial control or broader occupation. No major new military escalations or ground offensives have occurred in the past five months. Trader sentiment on an invasion market therefore reflects the distinction between the prior limited strike—resolved in some related contracts as engagement—and the higher threshold for an offensive aimed at establishing control over Venezuelan territory. Key variables include the interim government's compliance on drug interdiction and oil sector reforms, any scheduled political transition timelines, and US statements on further enforcement.