The January 2026 U.S. special operations raid and targeted airstrikes that captured Nicolás Maduro established significant American leverage over Venezuelan oil revenues, finances, and foreign policy without a sustained ground offensive or territorial occupation. Interim leadership under Delcy Rodríguez has cooperated on sanctions relief, counternarcotics, and reduced ties to Cuba and Iran, while U.S.-backed national dialogue talks between the interim government and opposition advanced through summer 2026. June earthquakes prompted limited U.S. humanitarian and stabilization support rather than escalation. These steps, combined with the absence of new congressional war authorizations or major military buildups since the raid, have kept trader-implied probabilities low for any qualifying military offensive aimed at establishing control over Venezuelan territory by year-end deadlines.