Elon Musk’s established posting cadence on X has positioned the 160-179 tweet range as the clear market favorite at 57.5% implied probability for August 11-18, reflecting consistent daily engagement around 23-25 posts amid routine business commentary and cultural exchanges. With the week nearly complete and no major Starlink, Tesla, or SpaceX announcements accelerating volume, trader consensus has stabilized around moderate totals rather than the 180-199 band. Weekend moderation and subdued news flow have further anchored sentiment, as historical patterns show reduced reply threads absent high-stakes catalysts. The market’s skin-in-the-game pricing captures this steady trajectory heading into resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật160-179 57%
180-199 30%
140-159 10.1%
200-219 3.5%
$1,793,443 KL.
$1,793,443 KL.
Aug 18, 2026
140-159
10%
160-179
57%
180-199
30%
200-219
4%
220-239
1%
240-259
<1%
260-279
<1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
160-179 57%
180-199 30%
140-159 10.1%
200-219 3.5%
$1,793,443 KL.
$1,793,443 KL.
Aug 18, 2026
140-159
$259,182 KL.
10%
160-179
$154,178 KL.
57%
180-199
$116,081 KL.
30%
200-219
$106,025 KL.
4%
220-239
$94,641 KL.
1%
240-259
$116,565 KL.
<1%
260-279
$100,584 KL.
<1%
280-299
$91,008 KL.
<1%
300-319
$83,049 KL.
<1%
320-339
$43,368 KL.
<1%
340-359
$42,323 KL.
<1%
360-379
$29,969 KL.
<1%
380-399
$25,087 KL.
<1%
400-419
$22,118 KL.
<1%
420-439
$15,300 KL.
<1%
440-459
$15,044 KL.
<1%
460-479
$6,196 KL.
<1%
480-499
$5,696 KL.
<1%
500+
$43,869 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 11 12:00 PM ET to August 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s established posting cadence on X has positioned the 160-179 tweet range as the clear market favorite at 57.5% implied probability for August 11-18, reflecting consistent daily engagement around 23-25 posts amid routine business commentary and cultural exchanges. With the week nearly complete and no major Starlink, Tesla, or SpaceX announcements accelerating volume, trader consensus has stabilized around moderate totals rather than the 180-199 band. Weekend moderation and subdued news flow have further anchored sentiment, as historical patterns show reduced reply threads absent high-stakes catalysts. The market’s skin-in-the-game pricing captures this steady trajectory heading into resolution.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 11 12:00 PM ET to August 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Thị trường mở: Aug 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Khối lượng
$1,793,443Ngày kết thúc
Aug 18, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 11 12:00 PM ET to August 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s established posting cadence on X has positioned the 160-179 tweet range as the clear market favorite at 57.5% implied probability for August 11-18, reflecting consistent daily engagement around 23-25 posts amid routine business commentary and cultural exchanges. With the week nearly complete and no major Starlink, Tesla, or SpaceX announcements accelerating volume, trader consensus has stabilized around moderate totals rather than the 180-199 band. Weekend moderation and subdued news flow have further anchored sentiment, as historical patterns show reduced reply threads absent high-stakes catalysts. The market’s skin-in-the-game pricing captures this steady trajectory heading into resolution.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 11 12:00 PM ET to August 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Khối lượng
$1,793,443Ngày kết thúc
Aug 18, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s established posting cadence on X has positioned the 160-179 tweet range as the clear market favorite at 57.5% implied probability for August 11-18, reflecting consistent daily engagement around 23-25 posts amid routine business commentary and cultural exchanges. With the week nearly complete and no major Starlink, Tesla, or SpaceX announcements accelerating volume, trader consensus has stabilized around moderate totals rather than the 180-199 band. Weekend moderation and subdued news flow have further anchored sentiment, as historical patterns show reduced reply threads absent high-stakes catalysts. The market’s skin-in-the-game pricing captures this steady trajectory heading into resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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