Traders have priced the 40-64 tweet range as the clear favorite at 58.5% implied probability because Elon Musk’s recent daily posting volume on X has settled into a steady low-to-mid-teens pace during an otherwise quiet mid-August stretch. Historical patterns show him averaging 15–25 posts per day absent major Tesla, SpaceX, or political developments, which would naturally produce three-day totals in the mid-40s to low-60s. The closely contested <40 bucket at 41.5% reflects the possibility of an especially subdued weekend, while buckets above 65 command negligible odds given the lack of viral exchanges or breaking news that historically trigger reply-storm spikes. With resolution on August 17, any last-minute company announcements remain the primary swing factor still being priced by the market.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật40-64 56%
<40 44%
65-89 1.4%
90-114 <1%
$315,484 KL.
$315,484 KL.
Aug 17, 2026
<40
44%
40-64
56%
65-89
1%
90-114
<1%
115-139
<1%
140-164
<1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
40-64 56%
<40 44%
65-89 1.4%
90-114 <1%
$315,484 KL.
$315,484 KL.
Aug 17, 2026
<40
$73,442 KL.
44%
40-64
$42,610 KL.
56%
65-89
$48,922 KL.
1%
90-114
$64,363 KL.
<1%
115-139
$48,694 KL.
<1%
140-164
$16,923 KL.
<1%
165-189
$8,347 KL.
<1%
190-214
$3,264 KL.
<1%
215-239
$4,806 KL.
<1%
240+
$4,113 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 15 12:00 PM ET to August 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Traders have priced the 40-64 tweet range as the clear favorite at 58.5% implied probability because Elon Musk’s recent daily posting volume on X has settled into a steady low-to-mid-teens pace during an otherwise quiet mid-August stretch. Historical patterns show him averaging 15–25 posts per day absent major Tesla, SpaceX, or political developments, which would naturally produce three-day totals in the mid-40s to low-60s. The closely contested <40 bucket at 41.5% reflects the possibility of an especially subdued weekend, while buckets above 65 command negligible odds given the lack of viral exchanges or breaking news that historically trigger reply-storm spikes. With resolution on August 17, any last-minute company announcements remain the primary swing factor still being priced by the market.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 15 12:00 PM ET to August 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Thị trường mở: Aug 13, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Khối lượng
$315,484Ngày kết thúc
Aug 17, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 13, 2026, 12:07 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 15 12:00 PM ET to August 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Traders have priced the 40-64 tweet range as the clear favorite at 58.5% implied probability because Elon Musk’s recent daily posting volume on X has settled into a steady low-to-mid-teens pace during an otherwise quiet mid-August stretch. Historical patterns show him averaging 15–25 posts per day absent major Tesla, SpaceX, or political developments, which would naturally produce three-day totals in the mid-40s to low-60s. The closely contested <40 bucket at 41.5% reflects the possibility of an especially subdued weekend, while buckets above 65 command negligible odds given the lack of viral exchanges or breaking news that historically trigger reply-storm spikes. With resolution on August 17, any last-minute company announcements remain the primary swing factor still being priced by the market.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 15 12:00 PM ET to August 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Khối lượng
$315,484Ngày kết thúc
Aug 17, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 13, 2026, 12:07 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders have priced the 40-64 tweet range as the clear favorite at 58.5% implied probability because Elon Musk’s recent daily posting volume on X has settled into a steady low-to-mid-teens pace during an otherwise quiet mid-August stretch. Historical patterns show him averaging 15–25 posts per day absent major Tesla, SpaceX, or political developments, which would naturally produce three-day totals in the mid-40s to low-60s. The closely contested <40 bucket at 41.5% reflects the possibility of an especially subdued weekend, while buckets above 65 command negligible odds given the lack of viral exchanges or breaking news that historically trigger reply-storm spikes. With resolution on August 17, any last-minute company announcements remain the primary swing factor still being priced by the market.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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