Elon Musk’s recent posting cadence on X, averaging roughly 26 posts daily through mid-August 2026, anchors trader consensus around the 40-64 tweet range for the August 17–19 window at 46.5% implied probability. This pace reflects steady but not elevated activity across replies, original posts, and reposts tied to ongoing commentary on AI developments, Tesla updates, and policy topics, with weekend timing and the absence of breaking controversies moderating volume versus higher-intensity periods earlier in the year. Historical patterns show daily output fluctuating between 10 and 70 posts, supporting the secondary <40 bucket at 28% while capping upside in higher ranges. The tight three-day resolution period leaves room for modest shifts from any sudden news catalysts before the window closes.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật40-64 47%
<40 28%
65-89 20%
90-114 4.5%
MỚI
$10,407 KL.
MỚI
$10,407 KL.
Aug 19, 2026
<40
28%
40-64
47%
65-89
20%
90-114
5%
115-139
1%
140-164
<1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
40-64 47%
<40 28%
65-89 20%
90-114 4.5%
MỚI
$10,407 KL.
MỚI
$10,407 KL.
Aug 19, 2026
<40
$640 KL.
28%
40-64
$453 KL.
47%
65-89
$76 KL.
20%
90-114
$530 KL.
5%
115-139
$0 KL.
1%
140-164
$1,275 KL.
<1%
165-189
$4,833 KL.
<1%
190-214
$1,200 KL.
<1%
215-239
$700 KL.
<1%
240+
$700 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 17 12:00 PM ET to August 19, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s recent posting cadence on X, averaging roughly 26 posts daily through mid-August 2026, anchors trader consensus around the 40-64 tweet range for the August 17–19 window at 46.5% implied probability. This pace reflects steady but not elevated activity across replies, original posts, and reposts tied to ongoing commentary on AI developments, Tesla updates, and policy topics, with weekend timing and the absence of breaking controversies moderating volume versus higher-intensity periods earlier in the year. Historical patterns show daily output fluctuating between 10 and 70 posts, supporting the secondary <40 bucket at 28% while capping upside in higher ranges. The tight three-day resolution period leaves room for modest shifts from any sudden news catalysts before the window closes.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 17 12:00 PM ET to August 19, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Thị trường mở: Aug 15, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Khối lượng
$10,407Ngày kết thúc
Aug 19, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 15, 2026, 12:07 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 17 12:00 PM ET to August 19, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s recent posting cadence on X, averaging roughly 26 posts daily through mid-August 2026, anchors trader consensus around the 40-64 tweet range for the August 17–19 window at 46.5% implied probability. This pace reflects steady but not elevated activity across replies, original posts, and reposts tied to ongoing commentary on AI developments, Tesla updates, and policy topics, with weekend timing and the absence of breaking controversies moderating volume versus higher-intensity periods earlier in the year. Historical patterns show daily output fluctuating between 10 and 70 posts, supporting the secondary <40 bucket at 28% while capping upside in higher ranges. The tight three-day resolution period leaves room for modest shifts from any sudden news catalysts before the window closes.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 17 12:00 PM ET to August 19, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Khối lượng
$10,407Ngày kết thúc
Aug 19, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 15, 2026, 12:07 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s recent posting cadence on X, averaging roughly 26 posts daily through mid-August 2026, anchors trader consensus around the 40-64 tweet range for the August 17–19 window at 46.5% implied probability. This pace reflects steady but not elevated activity across replies, original posts, and reposts tied to ongoing commentary on AI developments, Tesla updates, and policy topics, with weekend timing and the absence of breaking controversies moderating volume versus higher-intensity periods earlier in the year. Historical patterns show daily output fluctuating between 10 and 70 posts, supporting the secondary <40 bucket at 28% while capping upside in higher ranges. The tight three-day resolution period leaves room for modest shifts from any sudden news catalysts before the window closes.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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