Traders assign 95.2% probability against a Trump visit to Gaza in 2026 due to persistent security risks in the territory, ongoing demilitarization and reconstruction efforts under the Board of Peace framework, and the absence of any official itinerary, statements, or diplomatic signals supporting such a trip. US presidents have historically limited visits to Palestinian areas to more stable sites like Bethlehem or Ramallah, avoiding active or recently contested zones without full stabilization. No recent developments, including phase-two peace plan announcements or regional summits, indicate movement toward a Gaza stop. Realistic shifts could still occur through a verified ceasefire enabling secure access, a formal invitation tied to reconstruction milestones, or late diplomatic breakthroughs altering travel protocols before year-end.