Alaska's top-four primary system and ranked-choice voting in the general election create substantial uncertainty for the Senate and governor races, driving the elevated "Other" probability at 50 percent as traders price in potential for independents, cross-party advances, or fragmented results. The U.S. Senate contest pits Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan against Democrat Mary Peltola in a tight race, with recent polls showing margins under 6 points amid heavy outside spending. The open governor's race features a crowded field including Tom Begich and multiple Republicans, with no candidate consolidating support ahead of the August 18 primary. This structure and the proximity of the primary elevate split-party outcomes while capping clean sweeps near 30 percent each.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於民主黨橫掃 31%
共和黨橫掃 31%
民主黨勝州長，共和黨勝參議院 28%
共和黨勝州長，民主黨勝參議員 10%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主黨橫掃
31%
共和黨橫掃
31%
民主黨勝州長，共和黨勝參議院
28%
共和黨勝州長，民主黨勝參議員
10%
民主黨橫掃 31%
共和黨橫掃 31%
民主黨勝州長，共和黨勝參議院 28%
共和黨勝州長，民主黨勝參議員 10%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主黨橫掃
$3,527 交易量
31%
共和黨橫掃
$50 交易量
31%
民主黨勝州長，共和黨勝參議院
$330 交易量
28%
共和黨勝州長，民主黨勝參議員
$452 交易量
10%
This market will resolve according to the outcome of both the Gubernatorial and United States Senate general elections in Alaska that are currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with the party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
If the results of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other".
For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins both races.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Alaska's top-four primary system and ranked-choice voting in the general election create substantial uncertainty for the Senate and governor races, driving the elevated "Other" probability at 50 percent as traders price in potential for independents, cross-party advances, or fragmented results. The U.S. Senate contest pits Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan against Democrat Mary Peltola in a tight race, with recent polls showing margins under 6 points amid heavy outside spending. The open governor's race features a crowded field including Tom Begich and multiple Republicans, with no candidate consolidating support ahead of the August 18 primary. This structure and the proximity of the primary elevate split-party outcomes while capping clean sweeps near 30 percent each.
This market will resolve according to the outcome of both the Gubernatorial and United States Senate general elections in Alaska that are currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with the party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
If the results of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other".
For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins both races.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with the party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
If the results of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other".
For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins both races.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
市場開放時間： Aug 11, 2026, 11:07 AM ET
交易量
$4,360結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Aug 11, 2026, 11:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the outcome of both the Gubernatorial and United States Senate general elections in Alaska that are currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with the party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
If the results of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other".
For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins both races.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Alaska's top-four primary system and ranked-choice voting in the general election create substantial uncertainty for the Senate and governor races, driving the elevated "Other" probability at 50 percent as traders price in potential for independents, cross-party advances, or fragmented results. The U.S. Senate contest pits Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan against Democrat Mary Peltola in a tight race, with recent polls showing margins under 6 points amid heavy outside spending. The open governor's race features a crowded field including Tom Begich and multiple Republicans, with no candidate consolidating support ahead of the August 18 primary. This structure and the proximity of the primary elevate split-party outcomes while capping clean sweeps near 30 percent each.
This market will resolve according to the outcome of both the Gubernatorial and United States Senate general elections in Alaska that are currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with the party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
If the results of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other".
For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins both races.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with the party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
If the results of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other".
For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins both races.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$4,360結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Aug 11, 2026, 11:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Alaska's top-four primary system and ranked-choice voting in the general election create substantial uncertainty for the Senate and governor races, driving the elevated "Other" probability at 50 percent as traders price in potential for independents, cross-party advances, or fragmented results. The U.S. Senate contest pits Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan against Democrat Mary Peltola in a tight race, with recent polls showing margins under 6 points amid heavy outside spending. The open governor's race features a crowded field including Tom Begich and multiple Republicans, with no candidate consolidating support ahead of the August 18 primary. This structure and the proximity of the primary elevate split-party outcomes while capping clean sweeps near 30 percent each.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions