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icon for 阿肯色州參議院選舉贏家
政治·美國大選

阿肯色州參議院選舉贏家

icon for 阿肯色州參議院選舉贏家
政治·美國大選

阿肯色州參議院選舉贏家

$12,384 交易量

Polymarket

$12,384 交易量

icon for 共和黨

共和黨

$8,617 交易量

94%

icon for 民主黨

民主黨

$3,767 交易量

4%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Tom Cotton secured his party's nomination with over 81 percent in the March 2026 primary and faces Democrat Hallie Shoffner in the November general election. Arkansas's consistent Republican voting patterns in federal contests, combined with Cotton's established record and fundraising edge, underpin trader consensus that heavily favors the GOP outcome. Available polling shows double-digit leads for the Republican, consistent with the state's partisan baseline and the absence of major competitive shifts since the primaries. Limited Democratic infrastructure and low statewide support for the opposing party further reinforce the market positioning. Only late-cycle developments such as an unforeseen scandal, health issue, or dramatic national swing could realistically alter the trajectory before Election Day.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$12,384
結束日期
2026-11-03
市場開放時間
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Tom Cotton secured his party's nomination with over 81 percent in the March 2026 primary and faces Democrat Hallie Shoffner in the November general election. Arkansas's consistent Republican voting patterns in federal contests, combined with Cotton's established record and fundraising edge, underpin trader consensus that heavily favors the GOP outcome. Available polling shows double-digit leads for the Republican, consistent with the state's partisan baseline and the absence of major competitive shifts since the primaries. Limited Democratic infrastructure and low statewide support for the opposing party further reinforce the market positioning. Only late-cycle developments such as an unforeseen scandal, health issue, or dramatic national swing could realistically alter the trajectory before Election Day.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$12,384
結束日期
2026-11-03
市場開放時間
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"阿肯色州參議院選舉贏家" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "共和黨" at 94%, followed by "民主黨" at 4%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 94¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 94% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "阿肯色州參議院選舉贏家" has generated $12.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 13, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "阿肯色州參議院選舉贏家," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "阿肯色州參議院選舉贏家" is "共和黨" at 94%, meaning the market assigns a 94% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "民主黨" at 4%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "阿肯色州參議院選舉贏家" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.