**Die Linke consistently leads AfD in recent Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus polls ahead of the September 20, 2026 election, supporting the 71.5% trader-implied probability that Linke finishes with more votes.** Aggregated surveys from INSA, Civey, and Infratest dimap in July–August 2026 place Linke at 19–22% and AfD at 16–18%, with Linke ahead by 2–6 points in most readings (e.g., INSA Aug 7–13: Linke 19%, AfD 17%; Civey late July–early Aug: Linke 21%, AfD 18%). Linke has gained ground through strong membership growth—now Berlin’s largest party at over 18,000 members—and a surge in support under lead candidate Elif Eralp, while AfD has fluctuated, briefly topping one July poll before slipping back. The CDU’s candidate change from Kai Wegner to Stefan Evers and a recent power outage tied to left extremists have had limited impact on the Linke–AfD gap. Berlin’s urban electorate and historical patterns further favor Linke over AfD in head-to-head vote totals. With roughly 30 days remaining, the polling margin and momentum underpin the current market pricing, though late shifts in turnout or undecided voters could narrow the outcome.