Becerra maintains a commanding position against Hilton in California's open gubernatorial race, with the latest PPIC survey showing a 60-38 percent lead among likely voters, up from an 18-point Berkeley IGS margin weeks earlier. This reflects the state's structural Democratic advantage, strong partisan loyalty, and independent support for Becerra, alongside Hilton's challenges from Trump endorsement and limited crossover appeal outside the Central Valley. Traders price the most probable victory margins in the 15-25 percent range, consistent with historical patterns in similar contests and recent polling trends on affordability and turnout. Upcoming debates or shifts in voter priorities on housing and energy costs could adjust the final spread before the November 3 election.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於貝塞拉 20-25% 20%
貝塞拉15-20% 19%
貝塞拉 25-30% 15.6%
貝塞拉40％以上 13%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
貝塞拉40％以上
13%
貝塞拉35-40%
5%
貝塞拉 30-35%
9%
貝塞拉 25-30%
16%
貝塞拉 20-25%
20%
貝塞拉15-20%
19%
貝塞拉 10-15%
10%
貝塞拉 0-10%
2%
希爾頓勝出
<1%
貝塞拉 20-25% 20%
貝塞拉15-20% 19%
貝塞拉 25-30% 15.6%
貝塞拉40％以上 13%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
貝塞拉40％以上
$715 交易量
13%
貝塞拉35-40%
$303 交易量
5%
貝塞拉 30-35%
$195 交易量
9%
貝塞拉 25-30%
$509 交易量
16%
貝塞拉 20-25%
$829 交易量
20%
貝塞拉15-20%
$856 交易量
19%
貝塞拉 10-15%
$270 交易量
10%
貝塞拉 0-10%
$171 交易量
2%
希爾頓勝出
$193 交易量
<1%
The 2026 California gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Becerra maintains a commanding position against Hilton in California's open gubernatorial race, with the latest PPIC survey showing a 60-38 percent lead among likely voters, up from an 18-point Berkeley IGS margin weeks earlier. This reflects the state's structural Democratic advantage, strong partisan loyalty, and independent support for Becerra, alongside Hilton's challenges from Trump endorsement and limited crossover appeal outside the Central Valley. Traders price the most probable victory margins in the 15-25 percent range, consistent with historical patterns in similar contests and recent polling trends on affordability and turnout. Upcoming debates or shifts in voter priorities on housing and energy costs could adjust the final spread before the November 3 election.
The 2026 California gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Sep 2, 2026, 3:21 PM ET
交易量
$4,041結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 3:21 PM ETThe 2026 California gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Becerra maintains a commanding position against Hilton in California's open gubernatorial race, with the latest PPIC survey showing a 60-38 percent lead among likely voters, up from an 18-point Berkeley IGS margin weeks earlier. This reflects the state's structural Democratic advantage, strong partisan loyalty, and independent support for Becerra, alongside Hilton's challenges from Trump endorsement and limited crossover appeal outside the Central Valley. Traders price the most probable victory margins in the 15-25 percent range, consistent with historical patterns in similar contests and recent polling trends on affordability and turnout. Upcoming debates or shifts in voter priorities on housing and energy costs could adjust the final spread before the November 3 election.
The 2026 California gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$4,041結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 3:21 PM ETBecerra maintains a commanding position against Hilton in California's open gubernatorial race, with the latest PPIC survey showing a 60-38 percent lead among likely voters, up from an 18-point Berkeley IGS margin weeks earlier. This reflects the state's structural Democratic advantage, strong partisan loyalty, and independent support for Becerra, alongside Hilton's challenges from Trump endorsement and limited crossover appeal outside the Central Valley. Traders price the most probable victory margins in the 15-25 percent range, consistent with historical patterns in similar contests and recent polling trends on affordability and turnout. Upcoming debates or shifts in voter priorities on housing and energy costs could adjust the final spread before the November 3 election.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions