Recent expulsions of Russian diplomatic staff by EU members, including Hungary’s removal of 10 mission personnel in September 2026 for activities incompatible with the Vienna Convention, have targeted suspected intelligence operatives rather than ambassadors. Similar actions in Austria, Germany, and elsewhere since 2022 have followed the same pattern of measured reciprocity amid ongoing hybrid threats and the Ukraine conflict, without triggering full ambassador-level expulsions that would signal a deeper rupture in bilateral relations. Trader pricing reflects the absence of coordinated EU moves or national decisions to cross this threshold before year-end, alongside Russia’s consistent retaliatory posture and member states’ preference for maintaining limited diplomatic channels.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
21% 機率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
是
21% 機率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Russian ambassador is expelled from any European Union member state by the government of that state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by an EU member state requiring the Russian Ambassador to leave that state, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to the relevant state will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the expelling country and Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent expulsions of Russian diplomatic staff by EU members, including Hungary’s removal of 10 mission personnel in September 2026 for activities incompatible with the Vienna Convention, have targeted suspected intelligence operatives rather than ambassadors. Similar actions in Austria, Germany, and elsewhere since 2022 have followed the same pattern of measured reciprocity amid ongoing hybrid threats and the Ukraine conflict, without triggering full ambassador-level expulsions that would signal a deeper rupture in bilateral relations. Trader pricing reflects the absence of coordinated EU moves or national decisions to cross this threshold before year-end, alongside Russia’s consistent retaliatory posture and member states’ preference for maintaining limited diplomatic channels.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Russian ambassador is expelled from any European Union member state by the government of that state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by an EU member state requiring the Russian Ambassador to leave that state, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to the relevant state will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the expelling country and Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by an EU member state requiring the Russian Ambassador to leave that state, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to the relevant state will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the expelling country and Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Sep 18, 2026, 9:13 PM ET
交易量
$1,836結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Sep 18, 2026, 9:13 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if a Russian ambassador is expelled from any European Union member state by the government of that state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by an EU member state requiring the Russian Ambassador to leave that state, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to the relevant state will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the expelling country and Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent expulsions of Russian diplomatic staff by EU members, including Hungary’s removal of 10 mission personnel in September 2026 for activities incompatible with the Vienna Convention, have targeted suspected intelligence operatives rather than ambassadors. Similar actions in Austria, Germany, and elsewhere since 2022 have followed the same pattern of measured reciprocity amid ongoing hybrid threats and the Ukraine conflict, without triggering full ambassador-level expulsions that would signal a deeper rupture in bilateral relations. Trader pricing reflects the absence of coordinated EU moves or national decisions to cross this threshold before year-end, alongside Russia’s consistent retaliatory posture and member states’ preference for maintaining limited diplomatic channels.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Russian ambassador is expelled from any European Union member state by the government of that state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by an EU member state requiring the Russian Ambassador to leave that state, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to the relevant state will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the expelling country and Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by an EU member state requiring the Russian Ambassador to leave that state, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to the relevant state will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the expelling country and Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$1,836結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Sep 18, 2026, 9:13 PM ETRecent expulsions of Russian diplomatic staff by EU members, including Hungary’s removal of 10 mission personnel in September 2026 for activities incompatible with the Vienna Convention, have targeted suspected intelligence operatives rather than ambassadors. Similar actions in Austria, Germany, and elsewhere since 2022 have followed the same pattern of measured reciprocity amid ongoing hybrid threats and the Ukraine conflict, without triggering full ambassador-level expulsions that would signal a deeper rupture in bilateral relations. Trader pricing reflects the absence of coordinated EU moves or national decisions to cross this threshold before year-end, alongside Russia’s consistent retaliatory posture and member states’ preference for maintaining limited diplomatic channels.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions