Skip to main content
icon for Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final Winner

Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final Winner

icon for Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final Winner

Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final Winner

Israel 100.0%

Greece <1%

Belgium <1%

Croatia <1%

Polymarket

$255,184 交易量

Israel 100.0%

Greece <1%

Belgium <1%

Croatia <1%

Polymarket

$255,184 交易量

Israel

$20,948 交易量

100%

Greece

$25,328 交易量

<1%

Belgium

$7,799 交易量

<1%

Croatia

$24,125 交易量

<1%

Finland

$46,041 交易量

<1%

Lithuania

$13,949 交易量

<1%

Moldova

$33,742 交易量

<1%

Poland

$18,074 交易量

<1%

Serbia

$11,005 交易量

<1%

Sweden

$14,527 交易量

<1%

This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed country whose candidate wins the most points at the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.Israel’s commanding position in the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final reflects its standout rehearsal performances and consistent frontrunner status in betting markets and predictive models. Noam Bettan’s entry “Michelle” has drawn praise for its polished vocals, dynamic staging, and broad appeal across jury and televote scenarios, building momentum in the lead-up to the May 12 contest in Vienna. Despite surrounding geopolitical controversy and boycotts from several nations, trader sentiment remains anchored in Israel’s technical strength and historical semi-final qualification patterns. An upset would require a dramatic late surge from a dark horse like Greece or Finland through exceptional televote mobilization or a surprise jury pivot, though such shifts remain unlikely given current indicators.

This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed country whose candidate wins the most points at the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026.

If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
交易量
$255,184
結束日期
2026-05-12
市場開放時間
May 7, 2026, 11:45 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed country whose candidate wins the most points at the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

已提議結果: No

爭議期

最終

This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed country whose candidate wins the most points at the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.Israel’s commanding position in the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final reflects its standout rehearsal performances and consistent frontrunner status in betting markets and predictive models. Noam Bettan’s entry “Michelle” has drawn praise for its polished vocals, dynamic staging, and broad appeal across jury and televote scenarios, building momentum in the lead-up to the May 12 contest in Vienna. Despite surrounding geopolitical controversy and boycotts from several nations, trader sentiment remains anchored in Israel’s technical strength and historical semi-final qualification patterns. An upset would require a dramatic late surge from a dark horse like Greece or Finland through exceptional televote mobilization or a surprise jury pivot, though such shifts remain unlikely given current indicators.

This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed country whose candidate wins the most points at the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026.

If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
交易量
$255,184
結束日期
2026-05-12
市場開放時間
May 7, 2026, 11:45 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed country whose candidate wins the most points at the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

已提議結果: No

爭議期

最終

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 15 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Israel" at 100%, followed by "Greece" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final Winner" has generated $255.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on May 7, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final Winner," browse the 15 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final Winner" is "Israel" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Greece" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.