Traders are assigning a 93.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the July FOMC meeting, driven by the Fed’s recent communications that underscore a data-dependent stance amid cooling but still above-target inflation readings and a resilient labor market. Market-implied odds for a 25 basis point adjustment remain low because incoming economic releases have not produced the decisive shift needed to alter the current policy path, with Treasury yields and swap rates reflecting similar expectations for steady rates through the summer. This consensus aligns with the central bank’s emphasis on sustained progress toward its 2% inflation goal without introducing undue volatility. Scenarios that could challenge the positioning include a sharper-than-expected downturn in June employment data or an inflation surprise that prompts officials to revise their forward guidance ahead of the meeting.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於無變動 94%
上調25個基點 4.7%
下調25個基點 2.1%
降息50個基點以上 <1%
$5,695,796 交易量
$5,695,796 交易量
2026-07-29
降息50個基點以上
1%
下調25個基點
2%
無變動
94%
上調25個基點
5%
上調50個基點以上
<1%
無變動 94%
上調25個基點 4.7%
下調25個基點 2.1%
降息50個基點以上 <1%
$5,695,796 交易量
$5,695,796 交易量
2026-07-29
降息50個基點以上
$565,837 交易量
1%
下調25個基點
$455,871 交易量
2%
無變動
$674,281 交易量
94%
上調25個基點
$3,432,404 交易量
5%
上調50個基點以上
$568,617 交易量
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Traders are assigning a 93.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the July FOMC meeting, driven by the Fed’s recent communications that underscore a data-dependent stance amid cooling but still above-target inflation readings and a resilient labor market. Market-implied odds for a 25 basis point adjustment remain low because incoming economic releases have not produced the decisive shift needed to alter the current policy path, with Treasury yields and swap rates reflecting similar expectations for steady rates through the summer. This consensus aligns with the central bank’s emphasis on sustained progress toward its 2% inflation goal without introducing undue volatility. Scenarios that could challenge the positioning include a sharper-than-expected downturn in June employment data or an inflation surprise that prompts officials to revise their forward guidance ahead of the meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
市場開放時間： Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
交易量
$5,695,796結束日期
2026-07-29市場開放時間
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Traders are assigning a 93.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the July FOMC meeting, driven by the Fed’s recent communications that underscore a data-dependent stance amid cooling but still above-target inflation readings and a resilient labor market. Market-implied odds for a 25 basis point adjustment remain low because incoming economic releases have not produced the decisive shift needed to alter the current policy path, with Treasury yields and swap rates reflecting similar expectations for steady rates through the summer. This consensus aligns with the central bank’s emphasis on sustained progress toward its 2% inflation goal without introducing undue volatility. Scenarios that could challenge the positioning include a sharper-than-expected downturn in June employment data or an inflation surprise that prompts officials to revise their forward guidance ahead of the meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
交易量
$5,695,796結束日期
2026-07-29市場開放時間
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders are assigning a 93.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the July FOMC meeting, driven by the Fed’s recent communications that underscore a data-dependent stance amid cooling but still above-target inflation readings and a resilient labor market. Market-implied odds for a 25 basis point adjustment remain low because incoming economic releases have not produced the decisive shift needed to alter the current policy path, with Treasury yields and swap rates reflecting similar expectations for steady rates through the summer. This consensus aligns with the central bank’s emphasis on sustained progress toward its 2% inflation goal without introducing undue volatility. Scenarios that could challenge the positioning include a sharper-than-expected downturn in June employment data or an inflation surprise that prompts officials to revise their forward guidance ahead of the meeting.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions