Iowa's open Senate seat stands out as the most competitive among these three Republican-leaning Great Plains races, with recent polling averages showing Republican Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek within a few points or tied. An open contest after Joni Ernst's retirement, combined with voter concerns over agricultural costs, tariffs, and the delayed farm bill, has kept the race tight despite the state's Republican tilt. Nebraska follows, where incumbent Pete Ricketts faces independent Dan Osborn in polls that frequently show single-digit margins or ties, aided by Osborn's prior strong showing and unified support after Democrats cleared the field. Kansas remains the least contested, with incumbent Roger Marshall holding modest leads over pastor Adam Hamilton in most surveys, though the race has drawn attention from elevated Democratic interest and similar economic pressures. Trader consensus reflects Iowa's greater polling volatility and structural openness as the primary drivers of its leading probability.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於愛荷華州 55%
內布拉斯加州 33%
堪薩斯州 15%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
愛荷華州
55%
內布拉斯加州
33%
堪薩斯州
15%
愛荷華州 55%
內布拉斯加州 33%
堪薩斯州 15%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
愛荷華州
$511 交易量
55%
內布拉斯加州
$188 交易量
33%
堪薩斯州
$127 交易量
15%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Republican Senate candidate earns the lowest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Republican, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Republicans, the relevant vote share will be that of the Republican with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Iowa's open Senate seat stands out as the most competitive among these three Republican-leaning Great Plains races, with recent polling averages showing Republican Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek within a few points or tied. An open contest after Joni Ernst's retirement, combined with voter concerns over agricultural costs, tariffs, and the delayed farm bill, has kept the race tight despite the state's Republican tilt. Nebraska follows, where incumbent Pete Ricketts faces independent Dan Osborn in polls that frequently show single-digit margins or ties, aided by Osborn's prior strong showing and unified support after Democrats cleared the field. Kansas remains the least contested, with incumbent Roger Marshall holding modest leads over pastor Adam Hamilton in most surveys, though the race has drawn attention from elevated Democratic interest and similar economic pressures. Trader consensus reflects Iowa's greater polling volatility and structural openness as the primary drivers of its leading probability.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Republican Senate candidate earns the lowest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Republican, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Republicans, the relevant vote share will be that of the Republican with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Republican Senate candidate earns the lowest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Republican, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Republicans, the relevant vote share will be that of the Republican with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Sep 17, 2026, 1:23 PM ET
交易量
$826結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Sep 17, 2026, 1:23 PM ETThe 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Republican Senate candidate earns the lowest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Republican, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Republicans, the relevant vote share will be that of the Republican with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Iowa's open Senate seat stands out as the most competitive among these three Republican-leaning Great Plains races, with recent polling averages showing Republican Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek within a few points or tied. An open contest after Joni Ernst's retirement, combined with voter concerns over agricultural costs, tariffs, and the delayed farm bill, has kept the race tight despite the state's Republican tilt. Nebraska follows, where incumbent Pete Ricketts faces independent Dan Osborn in polls that frequently show single-digit margins or ties, aided by Osborn's prior strong showing and unified support after Democrats cleared the field. Kansas remains the least contested, with incumbent Roger Marshall holding modest leads over pastor Adam Hamilton in most surveys, though the race has drawn attention from elevated Democratic interest and similar economic pressures. Trader consensus reflects Iowa's greater polling volatility and structural openness as the primary drivers of its leading probability.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Republican Senate candidate earns the lowest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Republican, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Republicans, the relevant vote share will be that of the Republican with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Republican Senate candidate earns the lowest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Republican, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Republicans, the relevant vote share will be that of the Republican with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$826結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Sep 17, 2026, 1:23 PM ETIowa's open Senate seat stands out as the most competitive among these three Republican-leaning Great Plains races, with recent polling averages showing Republican Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek within a few points or tied. An open contest after Joni Ernst's retirement, combined with voter concerns over agricultural costs, tariffs, and the delayed farm bill, has kept the race tight despite the state's Republican tilt. Nebraska follows, where incumbent Pete Ricketts faces independent Dan Osborn in polls that frequently show single-digit margins or ties, aided by Osborn's prior strong showing and unified support after Democrats cleared the field. Kansas remains the least contested, with incumbent Roger Marshall holding modest leads over pastor Adam Hamilton in most surveys, though the race has drawn attention from elevated Democratic interest and similar economic pressures. Trader consensus reflects Iowa's greater polling volatility and structural openness as the primary drivers of its leading probability.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions