Recent forecast models indicate a high near 25–27°C in Chengdu on October 12 under partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies with light northwesterly winds around 4–7 km/h. These conditions, typical of autumn in the Sichuan Basin with minimal cloud cover and low precipitation chances below 15%, support the market's leading 27°C outcome at 46% implied probability by allowing daytime heating without significant moisture or frontal interference. Updated runs from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration show slight upward revisions from earlier guidance, while historical October averages near 22–24°C provide context for the elevated range. New model data expected overnight could refine resolution thresholds around category boundaries.