Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble models indicate a high near or slightly above the 82.7°F August 16 normal at Chicago O’Hare, driven by a warm, moist southerly flow under partly to mostly cloudy skies with limited afternoon mixing. Lake Michigan’s moderating influence caps peak readings while scattered showers and thunderstorms—possible remnants of earlier regional instability—reduce insolation and limit extreme warming. Trader positioning around the 86–87°F bin (48 % implied probability) reflects model consensus for modest above-normal warmth without the strong high-pressure ridge needed for 90°F-plus readings, consistent with mid-August climatology and recent post-derecho stabilization. Updated afternoon observations and final NWS verification will resolve the market.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月16日芝加哥的最高溫度？
8月16日芝加哥的最高溫度？
86-87°F 48%
84-85°F 26%
88-89°F 24%
82-83°F 4%
最新
最新
2026-08-16
77°F or below
<1%
78-79°F
1%
80-81°F
2%
82-83°F
4%
84-85°F
26%
86-87°F
48%
88-89°F
24%
90-91°F
2%
92-93°F
<1%
94-95°F
<1%
96°F or higher
<1%
86-87°F 48%
84-85°F 26%
88-89°F 24%
82-83°F 4%
最新
最新
2026-08-16
77°F or below
$779 交易量
<1%
78-79°F
$101 交易量
1%
80-81°F
$168 交易量
2%
82-83°F
$352 交易量
4%
84-85°F
$717 交易量
26%
86-87°F
$304 交易量
48%
88-89°F
$503 交易量
24%
90-91°F
$991 交易量
2%
92-93°F
$111 交易量
<1%
94-95°F
$237 交易量
<1%
96°F or higher
$286 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble models indicate a high near or slightly above the 82.7°F August 16 normal at Chicago O’Hare, driven by a warm, moist southerly flow under partly to mostly cloudy skies with limited afternoon mixing. Lake Michigan’s moderating influence caps peak readings while scattered showers and thunderstorms—possible remnants of earlier regional instability—reduce insolation and limit extreme warming. Trader positioning around the 86–87°F bin (48 % implied probability) reflects model consensus for modest above-normal warmth without the strong high-pressure ridge needed for 90°F-plus readings, consistent with mid-August climatology and recent post-derecho stabilization. Updated afternoon observations and final NWS verification will resolve the market.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 15, 2026, 4:02 PM ET
交易量
$4,549結束日期
2026-08-16市場開放時間
Aug 15, 2026, 4:02 PM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble models indicate a high near or slightly above the 82.7°F August 16 normal at Chicago O’Hare, driven by a warm, moist southerly flow under partly to mostly cloudy skies with limited afternoon mixing. Lake Michigan’s moderating influence caps peak readings while scattered showers and thunderstorms—possible remnants of earlier regional instability—reduce insolation and limit extreme warming. Trader positioning around the 86–87°F bin (48 % implied probability) reflects model consensus for modest above-normal warmth without the strong high-pressure ridge needed for 90°F-plus readings, consistent with mid-August climatology and recent post-derecho stabilization. Updated afternoon observations and final NWS verification will resolve the market.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$4,549結束日期
2026-08-16市場開放時間
Aug 15, 2026, 4:02 PM ETRecent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble models indicate a high near or slightly above the 82.7°F August 16 normal at Chicago O’Hare, driven by a warm, moist southerly flow under partly to mostly cloudy skies with limited afternoon mixing. Lake Michigan’s moderating influence caps peak readings while scattered showers and thunderstorms—possible remnants of earlier regional instability—reduce insolation and limit extreme warming. Trader positioning around the 86–87°F bin (48 % implied probability) reflects model consensus for modest above-normal warmth without the strong high-pressure ridge needed for 90°F-plus readings, consistent with mid-August climatology and recent post-derecho stabilization. Updated afternoon observations and final NWS verification will resolve the market.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions