**Trader consensus clusters around 31–33°C for Hong Kong’s official daily maximum on July 1, reflecting uncertainty in the precise balance between seasonal warmth and short-term synoptic influences.** The Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal outlook for June–August 2026 calls for above-normal temperatures amid the long-term warming trend, consistent with typical early-July climatology of ~31°C daytime highs under prevailing southwesterly flow. Differentiating the narrow 31–33°C band hinges on expected cloud cover, shower activity, and boundary-layer mixing: persistent monsoon trough moisture or convective clouds would cap peaks near 31°C, while clearer intervals under a stronger subtropical ridge could allow 33°C. Model consensus and recent multi-model runs show modest spread in these details, with no major typhoon signals yet altering the pattern. Updated HKO guidance and morning observations on June 30–July 1 will likely narrow the outcome before market resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 1?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 1?
33°C 34%
32°C 29%
31°C 22%
30°C 11%
最新
$10,031 交易量
最新
$10,031 交易量
2026-07-01
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
1%
29°C
2%
30°C
11%
31°C
22%
32°C
29%
33°C
34%
34°C
8%
35°C
1%
36°C or higher
1%
33°C 34%
32°C 29%
31°C 22%
30°C 11%
最新
$10,031 交易量
最新
$10,031 交易量
2026-07-01
26°C or below
$315 交易量
<1%
27°C
$217 交易量
<1%
28°C
$232 交易量
1%
29°C
$408 交易量
2%
30°C
$428 交易量
11%
31°C
$629 交易量
22%
32°C
$5,532 交易量
29%
33°C
$994 交易量
34%
34°C
$877 交易量
8%
35°C
$242 交易量
1%
36°C or higher
$195 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader consensus clusters around 31–33°C for Hong Kong’s official daily maximum on July 1, reflecting uncertainty in the precise balance between seasonal warmth and short-term synoptic influences.** The Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal outlook for June–August 2026 calls for above-normal temperatures amid the long-term warming trend, consistent with typical early-July climatology of ~31°C daytime highs under prevailing southwesterly flow. Differentiating the narrow 31–33°C band hinges on expected cloud cover, shower activity, and boundary-layer mixing: persistent monsoon trough moisture or convective clouds would cap peaks near 31°C, while clearer intervals under a stronger subtropical ridge could allow 33°C. Model consensus and recent multi-model runs show modest spread in these details, with no major typhoon signals yet altering the pattern. Updated HKO guidance and morning observations on June 30–July 1 will likely narrow the outcome before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： Jun 29, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
交易量
$10,031結束日期
2026-07-01市場開放時間
Jun 29, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader consensus clusters around 31–33°C for Hong Kong’s official daily maximum on July 1, reflecting uncertainty in the precise balance between seasonal warmth and short-term synoptic influences.** The Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal outlook for June–August 2026 calls for above-normal temperatures amid the long-term warming trend, consistent with typical early-July climatology of ~31°C daytime highs under prevailing southwesterly flow. Differentiating the narrow 31–33°C band hinges on expected cloud cover, shower activity, and boundary-layer mixing: persistent monsoon trough moisture or convective clouds would cap peaks near 31°C, while clearer intervals under a stronger subtropical ridge could allow 33°C. Model consensus and recent multi-model runs show modest spread in these details, with no major typhoon signals yet altering the pattern. Updated HKO guidance and morning observations on June 30–July 1 will likely narrow the outcome before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$10,031結束日期
2026-07-01市場開放時間
Jun 29, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus clusters around 31–33°C for Hong Kong’s official daily maximum on July 1, reflecting uncertainty in the precise balance between seasonal warmth and short-term synoptic influences.** The Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal outlook for June–August 2026 calls for above-normal temperatures amid the long-term warming trend, consistent with typical early-July climatology of ~31°C daytime highs under prevailing southwesterly flow. Differentiating the narrow 31–33°C band hinges on expected cloud cover, shower activity, and boundary-layer mixing: persistent monsoon trough moisture or convective clouds would cap peaks near 31°C, while clearer intervals under a stronger subtropical ridge could allow 33°C. Model consensus and recent multi-model runs show modest spread in these details, with no major typhoon signals yet altering the pattern. Updated HKO guidance and morning observations on June 30–July 1 will likely narrow the outcome before market resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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警惕外部連結哦。
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