Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance indicate a high of 62–65°F for New York City on October 6 under clear skies and persistent northwesterly flow behind a cold front. This setup favors modest daytime heating, with surface winds of 10–15 mph limiting boundary-layer mixing and keeping temperatures below the late-September/early-October climatological average of ~68–69°F. Multiple forecast matrices and point forecasts converge on this range, with minimal model spread supporting the market’s heavy weighting toward 62–63°F and 64–65°F outcomes. The primary remaining uncertainty lies in exact peak timing and any subtle warming from downslope flow, though current observations and short-range guidance show little potential for deviation above the mid-60s.