**El Niño onset is the dominant near-term driver.** Official monitoring from NOAA and WMO confirms El Niño conditions are now present in the equatorial Pacific, with an 80% chance of persistence through June–August 2026 and strengthening expected into winter. This adds a temporary positive forcing on global surface temperatures that aligns with the market’s leading 1.15–1.19 °C bin. Recent monthly anomalies (May 2026 second-warmest on record; January 2026 at +1.12 °C) and model consensus show the underlying anthropogenic trend near 1.3–1.4 °C, tempered by post-2024 cooling and the still-moderate strength of the emerging event. Traders appear to price limited additional June warming before the full El Niño peak, consistent with historical lags between Niño-3.4 SST rise and global mean response. Updated forecasts and the June–July Niño index releases will be the next key data points that could shift probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.15–1.19ºC 55%
1.10–1.14ºC 27%
1.20–1.24ºC 12%
1.25–1.29ºC 3.4%
$10,702 交易量
$10,702 交易量
2026-06-30
<1.10ºC
3%
1.10–1.14ºC
27%
1.15–1.19ºC
55%
1.20–1.24ºC
12%
1.25–1.29ºC
3%
>1.29ºC
2%
1.15–1.19ºC 55%
1.10–1.14ºC 27%
1.20–1.24ºC 12%
1.25–1.29ºC 3.4%
$10,702 交易量
$10,702 交易量
2026-06-30
<1.10ºC
$325 交易量
3%
1.10–1.14ºC
$5,023 交易量
27%
1.15–1.19ºC
$76 交易量
55%
1.20–1.24ºC
$2,867 交易量
12%
1.25–1.29ºC
$1,420 交易量
3%
>1.29ºC
$992 交易量
2%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.**El Niño onset is the dominant near-term driver.** Official monitoring from NOAA and WMO confirms El Niño conditions are now present in the equatorial Pacific, with an 80% chance of persistence through June–August 2026 and strengthening expected into winter. This adds a temporary positive forcing on global surface temperatures that aligns with the market’s leading 1.15–1.19 °C bin.
Recent monthly anomalies (May 2026 second-warmest on record; January 2026 at +1.12 °C) and model consensus show the underlying anthropogenic trend near 1.3–1.4 °C, tempered by post-2024 cooling and the still-moderate strength of the emerging event. Traders appear to price limited additional June warming before the full El Niño peak, consistent with historical lags between Niño-3.4 SST rise and global mean response. Updated forecasts and the June–July Niño index releases will be the next key data points that could shift probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
市場開放時間： May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
交易量
$10,702結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.**El Niño onset is the dominant near-term driver.** Official monitoring from NOAA and WMO confirms El Niño conditions are now present in the equatorial Pacific, with an 80% chance of persistence through June–August 2026 and strengthening expected into winter. This adds a temporary positive forcing on global surface temperatures that aligns with the market’s leading 1.15–1.19 °C bin.
Recent monthly anomalies (May 2026 second-warmest on record; January 2026 at +1.12 °C) and model consensus show the underlying anthropogenic trend near 1.3–1.4 °C, tempered by post-2024 cooling and the still-moderate strength of the emerging event. Traders appear to price limited additional June warming before the full El Niño peak, consistent with historical lags between Niño-3.4 SST rise and global mean response. Updated forecasts and the June–July Niño index releases will be the next key data points that could shift probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
交易量
$10,702結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**El Niño onset is the dominant near-term driver.** Official monitoring from NOAA and WMO confirms El Niño conditions are now present in the equatorial Pacific, with an 80% chance of persistence through June–August 2026 and strengthening expected into winter. This adds a temporary positive forcing on global surface temperatures that aligns with the market’s leading 1.15–1.19 °C bin. Recent monthly anomalies (May 2026 second-warmest on record; January 2026 at +1.12 °C) and model consensus show the underlying anthropogenic trend near 1.3–1.4 °C, tempered by post-2024 cooling and the still-moderate strength of the emerging event. Traders appear to price limited additional June warming before the full El Niño peak, consistent with historical lags between Niño-3.4 SST rise and global mean response. Updated forecasts and the June–July Niño index releases will be the next key data points that could shift probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions