Ongoing anthropogenic warming combined with the emergence of El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific drives the 84.5% market-implied odds that at least one 2026 month will set a new global temperature record. Recent NOAA analyses confirm El Niño is present and expected to intensify through the Northern Hemisphere winter, adding to the long-term rise of roughly 0.2 °C per decade. Early 2026 months have ranked among the warmest on record but below 2024–2025 peaks; however, model ensembles project further increases in sea-surface temperatures and global means later in the year. This trajectory aligns with WMO forecasts of sustained near-record warmth through 2030 and the observed acceleration in recent temperature anomalies, making new monthly maxima probable absent an unexpected rapid shift to La Niña.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?
$142,524 交易量
$142,524 交易量
2027-01-10
$142,524 交易量
$142,524 交易量
2027-01-10
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Ongoing anthropogenic warming combined with the emergence of El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific drives the 84.5% market-implied odds that at least one 2026 month will set a new global temperature record. Recent NOAA analyses confirm El Niño is present and expected to intensify through the Northern Hemisphere winter, adding to the long-term rise of roughly 0.2 °C per decade. Early 2026 months have ranked among the warmest on record but below 2024–2025 peaks; however, model ensembles project further increases in sea-surface temperatures and global means later in the year. This trajectory aligns with WMO forecasts of sustained near-record warmth through 2030 and the observed acceleration in recent temperature anomalies, making new monthly maxima probable absent an unexpected rapid shift to La Niña.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
市場開放時間： Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ET
交易量
$142,524結束日期
2027-01-10市場開放時間
Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Ongoing anthropogenic warming combined with the emergence of El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific drives the 84.5% market-implied odds that at least one 2026 month will set a new global temperature record. Recent NOAA analyses confirm El Niño is present and expected to intensify through the Northern Hemisphere winter, adding to the long-term rise of roughly 0.2 °C per decade. Early 2026 months have ranked among the warmest on record but below 2024–2025 peaks; however, model ensembles project further increases in sea-surface temperatures and global means later in the year. This trajectory aligns with WMO forecasts of sustained near-record warmth through 2030 and the observed acceleration in recent temperature anomalies, making new monthly maxima probable absent an unexpected rapid shift to La Niña.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
交易量
$142,524結束日期
2027-01-10市場開放時間
Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing anthropogenic warming combined with the emergence of El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific drives the 84.5% market-implied odds that at least one 2026 month will set a new global temperature record. Recent NOAA analyses confirm El Niño is present and expected to intensify through the Northern Hemisphere winter, adding to the long-term rise of roughly 0.2 °C per decade. Early 2026 months have ranked among the warmest on record but below 2024–2025 peaks; however, model ensembles project further increases in sea-surface temperatures and global means later in the year. This trajectory aligns with WMO forecasts of sustained near-record warmth through 2030 and the observed acceleration in recent temperature anomalies, making new monthly maxima probable absent an unexpected rapid shift to La Niña.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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