Ongoing global warming at roughly 0.26 °C per decade, combined with the expected transition to El Niño conditions by mid-2026, underpins the 87.5 % market-implied probability that at least one month will set a new record. After La Niña suppressed temperatures in 2025, equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures are now rising, with NOAA assigning an 82 % chance of El Niño developing by July and persisting into 2027. Early 2026 months already rank among the warmest on record despite residual cooling, and model ensembles project peak anomalies exceeding prior El Niño events atop a 1.45–1.5 °C baseline above pre-industrial levels. Official agencies anticipate the strongest warmth in the second half of the year, when ENSO amplification typically peaks, increasing the likelihood of new monthly maxima relative to the 2024 record.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$136,727 交易量
$136,727 交易量
2027-01-10
是
$136,727 交易量
$136,727 交易量
2027-01-10
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Ongoing global warming at roughly 0.26 °C per decade, combined with the expected transition to El Niño conditions by mid-2026, underpins the 87.5 % market-implied probability that at least one month will set a new record. After La Niña suppressed temperatures in 2025, equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures are now rising, with NOAA assigning an 82 % chance of El Niño developing by July and persisting into 2027. Early 2026 months already rank among the warmest on record despite residual cooling, and model ensembles project peak anomalies exceeding prior El Niño events atop a 1.45–1.5 °C baseline above pre-industrial levels. Official agencies anticipate the strongest warmth in the second half of the year, when ENSO amplification typically peaks, increasing the likelihood of new monthly maxima relative to the 2024 record.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
市場開放時間： Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ET
交易量
$136,727結束日期
2027-01-10市場開放時間
Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Ongoing global warming at roughly 0.26 °C per decade, combined with the expected transition to El Niño conditions by mid-2026, underpins the 87.5 % market-implied probability that at least one month will set a new record. After La Niña suppressed temperatures in 2025, equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures are now rising, with NOAA assigning an 82 % chance of El Niño developing by July and persisting into 2027. Early 2026 months already rank among the warmest on record despite residual cooling, and model ensembles project peak anomalies exceeding prior El Niño events atop a 1.45–1.5 °C baseline above pre-industrial levels. Official agencies anticipate the strongest warmth in the second half of the year, when ENSO amplification typically peaks, increasing the likelihood of new monthly maxima relative to the 2024 record.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
交易量
$136,727結束日期
2027-01-10市場開放時間
Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing global warming at roughly 0.26 °C per decade, combined with the expected transition to El Niño conditions by mid-2026, underpins the 87.5 % market-implied probability that at least one month will set a new record. After La Niña suppressed temperatures in 2025, equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures are now rising, with NOAA assigning an 82 % chance of El Niño developing by July and persisting into 2027. Early 2026 months already rank among the warmest on record despite residual cooling, and model ensembles project peak anomalies exceeding prior El Niño events atop a 1.45–1.5 °C baseline above pre-industrial levels. Official agencies anticipate the strongest warmth in the second half of the year, when ENSO amplification typically peaks, increasing the likelihood of new monthly maxima relative to the 2024 record.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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