**Trader consensus for Hong Kong’s official lowest temperature on July 3 centers on 27°C (48% implied probability), with nearby outcomes of 26°C and 28°C each near 20%.** This clustering reflects current model guidance and climatology for early July, when the Hong Kong Observatory typically records daily minimums of 26–28°C under prevailing southwesterly monsoon flow. High humidity and frequent cloud cover or showers limit overnight radiative cooling, establishing a warm floor near 26–27°C. Recent multi-day forecasts indicate patchy rain or cloudy conditions through early July that would favor a minimum near 27°C rather than a sharper drop. Seasonal outlooks from the HKO call for normal to above-normal temperatures overall, consistent with the long-term warming trend, while short-term ensemble runs show modest spread driven by the exact timing and intensity of monsoon moisture. Updated HKO guidance and morning observations on July 1–2 will refine the precise value ahead of market resolution, with any clearer skies potentially allowing a dip toward 26°C or persistent cloud keeping it at 27–28°C.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 3?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 3?
27°C 59%
26°C 25%
28°C 8%
25°C 7%
最新
最新
2026-07-03
22°C or below
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
2%
25°C
7%
26°C
25%
27°C
59%
28°C
8%
29°C
5%
30°C
<1%
31°C
1%
32°C or higher
1%
27°C 59%
26°C 25%
28°C 8%
25°C 7%
最新
最新
2026-07-03
22°C or below
$41 交易量
1%
23°C
$119 交易量
1%
24°C
$131 交易量
2%
25°C
$14 交易量
7%
26°C
$75 交易量
25%
27°C
$4,001 交易量
59%
28°C
$6 交易量
8%
29°C
$0 交易量
5%
30°C
$95 交易量
<1%
31°C
$46 交易量
1%
32°C or higher
$101 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader consensus for Hong Kong’s official lowest temperature on July 3 centers on 27°C (48% implied probability), with nearby outcomes of 26°C and 28°C each near 20%.** This clustering reflects current model guidance and climatology for early July, when the Hong Kong Observatory typically records daily minimums of 26–28°C under prevailing southwesterly monsoon flow.
High humidity and frequent cloud cover or showers limit overnight radiative cooling, establishing a warm floor near 26–27°C. Recent multi-day forecasts indicate patchy rain or cloudy conditions through early July that would favor a minimum near 27°C rather than a sharper drop. Seasonal outlooks from the HKO call for normal to above-normal temperatures overall, consistent with the long-term warming trend, while short-term ensemble runs show modest spread driven by the exact timing and intensity of monsoon moisture.
Updated HKO guidance and morning observations on July 1–2 will refine the precise value ahead of market resolution, with any clearer skies potentially allowing a dip toward 26°C or persistent cloud keeping it at 27–28°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： Jul 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$4,626結束日期
2026-07-03市場開放時間
Jul 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader consensus for Hong Kong’s official lowest temperature on July 3 centers on 27°C (48% implied probability), with nearby outcomes of 26°C and 28°C each near 20%.** This clustering reflects current model guidance and climatology for early July, when the Hong Kong Observatory typically records daily minimums of 26–28°C under prevailing southwesterly monsoon flow.
High humidity and frequent cloud cover or showers limit overnight radiative cooling, establishing a warm floor near 26–27°C. Recent multi-day forecasts indicate patchy rain or cloudy conditions through early July that would favor a minimum near 27°C rather than a sharper drop. Seasonal outlooks from the HKO call for normal to above-normal temperatures overall, consistent with the long-term warming trend, while short-term ensemble runs show modest spread driven by the exact timing and intensity of monsoon moisture.
Updated HKO guidance and morning observations on July 1–2 will refine the precise value ahead of market resolution, with any clearer skies potentially allowing a dip toward 26°C or persistent cloud keeping it at 27–28°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$4,626結束日期
2026-07-03市場開放時間
Jul 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus for Hong Kong’s official lowest temperature on July 3 centers on 27°C (48% implied probability), with nearby outcomes of 26°C and 28°C each near 20%.** This clustering reflects current model guidance and climatology for early July, when the Hong Kong Observatory typically records daily minimums of 26–28°C under prevailing southwesterly monsoon flow. High humidity and frequent cloud cover or showers limit overnight radiative cooling, establishing a warm floor near 26–27°C. Recent multi-day forecasts indicate patchy rain or cloudy conditions through early July that would favor a minimum near 27°C rather than a sharper drop. Seasonal outlooks from the HKO call for normal to above-normal temperatures overall, consistent with the long-term warming trend, while short-term ensemble runs show modest spread driven by the exact timing and intensity of monsoon moisture. Updated HKO guidance and morning observations on July 1–2 will refine the precise value ahead of market resolution, with any clearer skies potentially allowing a dip toward 26°C or persistent cloud keeping it at 27–28°C.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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