Łukasz Gibała leads the Kraków mayoral by-election market at 70.5% following the May 2026 recall referendum that removed incumbent Aleksander Miszalski amid declining local support. Gibała, running under the Kraków for Residents committee as an independent after narrowly losing the 2024 runoff by roughly 5,400 votes, benefits from established name recognition and consistent first-round polling strength ahead of the September 27 vote. Monika Piątkowska of the Civic Coalition holds second place at 23%, reflecting her party's organizational base, while fragmented support among other registered candidates—including independents and smaller party nominees—keeps their implied probabilities below 12%. Trader consensus incorporates the compressed campaign timeline, signature thresholds for registration, and the absence of major new polling shifts since the referendum.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於盧卡什·吉巴拉 71%
莫妮卡‧皮翁特科夫斯卡 23%
亞歷珊德拉·奧夫察 3.6%
拉法烏·科馬雷維奇 3.6%
$17,289 交易量
$17,289 交易量
盧卡什·吉巴拉
71%
莫妮卡‧皮翁特科夫斯卡
23%
亞歷珊德拉·奧夫察
4%
拉法烏·科馬雷維奇
4%
Łukasz Wantuch
3%
Grażyna Zofia Świat
3%
揚·霍夫曼
3%
瑪麗安娜·舒賴伯
2%
Marian Banaś
1%
拉法乌·索尼克
1%
巴爾托什·博欽查克
1%
瑪爾塔·拉圖申斯卡
1%
達莉亞·高塞克-波皮奧韋克
<1%
Paweł Śliz
<1%
Michał Drewnicki
<1%
斯拉沃米爾·皮特爾茲克
<1%
米哈乌·克利梅克
<1%
盧卡什·吉巴拉 71%
莫妮卡‧皮翁特科夫斯卡 23%
亞歷珊德拉·奧夫察 3.6%
拉法烏·科馬雷維奇 3.6%
$17,289 交易量
$17,289 交易量
盧卡什·吉巴拉
71%
莫妮卡‧皮翁特科夫斯卡
23%
亞歷珊德拉·奧夫察
4%
拉法烏·科馬雷維奇
4%
Łukasz Wantuch
3%
Grażyna Zofia Świat
3%
揚·霍夫曼
3%
瑪麗安娜·舒賴伯
2%
Marian Banaś
1%
拉法乌·索尼克
1%
巴爾托什·博欽查克
1%
瑪爾塔·拉圖申斯卡
1%
達莉亞·高塞克-波皮奧韋克
<1%
Paweł Śliz
<1%
Michał Drewnicki
<1%
斯拉沃米爾·皮特爾茲克
<1%
米哈乌·克利梅克
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Kraków as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Kraków, including its election office and Municipal Electoral Commission.
市場開放時間： Aug 6, 2026, 8:39 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Kraków as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Kraków, including its election office and Municipal Electoral Commission.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Łukasz Gibała leads the Kraków mayoral by-election market at 70.5% following the May 2026 recall referendum that removed incumbent Aleksander Miszalski amid declining local support. Gibała, running under the Kraków for Residents committee as an independent after narrowly losing the 2024 runoff by roughly 5,400 votes, benefits from established name recognition and consistent first-round polling strength ahead of the September 27 vote. Monika Piątkowska of the Civic Coalition holds second place at 23%, reflecting her party's organizational base, while fragmented support among other registered candidates—including independents and smaller party nominees—keeps their implied probabilities below 12%. Trader consensus incorporates the compressed campaign timeline, signature thresholds for registration, and the absence of major new polling shifts since the referendum.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions