The Massachusetts 4th congressional district remains a solidly Democratic seat heading into the November 2026 general election, with the upcoming September 1 Democratic primary between incumbent Jake Auchincloss and challenger Jason Poulos serving as the most immediate catalyst for trader positioning on victory margins. Historical results and the district's partisan voting index have produced consistent double-digit Democratic advantages in recent cycles, yet equal pricing across margin bands and Republican win probabilities reflects uncertainty over how primary dynamics, base turnout, and the broader midterm environment will influence the final spread. Key variables include whether the primary energizes progressive or moderate voters, the strength of the Republican nominee, and any shifts in national polling or economic conditions that could affect down-ballot performance in this southeastern Massachusetts district. Late primary polling showing Auchincloss with a substantial lead suggests limited risk of an upset that would alter general-election calculations, though any surprise in voter engagement or candidate positioning could still widen or narrow the eventual margin before Election Day.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Democrat 45%+ 37%
Democrat 40-45% 37%
Democrat 35-40% 37%
Democrat 30-35% 37%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
Democrat 45%+
37%
Democrat 40-45%
37%
Democrat 35-40%
37%
Democrat 30-35%
37%
Democrat 25-30%
37%
Democrat 20-25%
37%
Democrat 15-20%
37%
Democrat 5-15%
37%
Democrat 0-5%
37%
Republican Wins
37%
Democrat 45%+ 37%
Democrat 40-45% 37%
Democrat 35-40% 37%
Democrat 30-35% 37%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
Democrat 45%+
$0 交易量
37%
Democrat 40-45%
$0 交易量
37%
Democrat 35-40%
$0 交易量
37%
Democrat 30-35%
$0 交易量
37%
Democrat 25-30%
$0 交易量
37%
Democrat 20-25%
$0 交易量
37%
Democrat 15-20%
$0 交易量
37%
Democrat 5-15%
$0 交易量
37%
Democrat 0-5%
$0 交易量
37%
Republican Wins
$0 交易量
37%
The 2026 MA-04 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MA-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Massachusetts 4th congressional district remains a solidly Democratic seat heading into the November 2026 general election, with the upcoming September 1 Democratic primary between incumbent Jake Auchincloss and challenger Jason Poulos serving as the most immediate catalyst for trader positioning on victory margins. Historical results and the district's partisan voting index have produced consistent double-digit Democratic advantages in recent cycles, yet equal pricing across margin bands and Republican win probabilities reflects uncertainty over how primary dynamics, base turnout, and the broader midterm environment will influence the final spread. Key variables include whether the primary energizes progressive or moderate voters, the strength of the Republican nominee, and any shifts in national polling or economic conditions that could affect down-ballot performance in this southeastern Massachusetts district. Late primary polling showing Auchincloss with a substantial lead suggests limited risk of an upset that would alter general-election calculations, though any surprise in voter engagement or candidate positioning could still widen or narrow the eventual margin before Election Day.
The 2026 MA-04 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MA-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MA-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Aug 10, 2026, 11:05 AM ET
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Aug 10, 2026, 11:05 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 MA-04 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MA-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Massachusetts 4th congressional district remains a solidly Democratic seat heading into the November 2026 general election, with the upcoming September 1 Democratic primary between incumbent Jake Auchincloss and challenger Jason Poulos serving as the most immediate catalyst for trader positioning on victory margins. Historical results and the district's partisan voting index have produced consistent double-digit Democratic advantages in recent cycles, yet equal pricing across margin bands and Republican win probabilities reflects uncertainty over how primary dynamics, base turnout, and the broader midterm environment will influence the final spread. Key variables include whether the primary energizes progressive or moderate voters, the strength of the Republican nominee, and any shifts in national polling or economic conditions that could affect down-ballot performance in this southeastern Massachusetts district. Late primary polling showing Auchincloss with a substantial lead suggests limited risk of an upset that would alter general-election calculations, though any surprise in voter engagement or candidate positioning could still widen or narrow the eventual margin before Election Day.
The 2026 MA-04 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MA-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MA-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Aug 10, 2026, 11:05 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Massachusetts 4th congressional district remains a solidly Democratic seat heading into the November 2026 general election, with the upcoming September 1 Democratic primary between incumbent Jake Auchincloss and challenger Jason Poulos serving as the most immediate catalyst for trader positioning on victory margins. Historical results and the district's partisan voting index have produced consistent double-digit Democratic advantages in recent cycles, yet equal pricing across margin bands and Republican win probabilities reflects uncertainty over how primary dynamics, base turnout, and the broader midterm environment will influence the final spread. Key variables include whether the primary energizes progressive or moderate voters, the strength of the Republican nominee, and any shifts in national polling or economic conditions that could affect down-ballot performance in this southeastern Massachusetts district. Late primary polling showing Auchincloss with a substantial lead suggests limited risk of an upset that would alter general-election calculations, though any surprise in voter engagement or candidate positioning could still widen or narrow the eventual margin before Election Day.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions