Abdul El-Sayed's 93% implied probability to carry Oakland County reflects his nomination as the Democratic Senate candidate after a narrow August 2026 primary victory, combined with the county's recent voting patterns in suburban Detroit areas that have favored Democrats in statewide races. Mike Rogers, the Republican nominee running unopposed in his primary, trails at 8% amid polling that shows the overall Michigan contest remaining competitive. Trader consensus incorporates El-Sayed's consolidation of progressive and union support post-primary, alongside structural advantages in a county with significant independent and Democratic-leaning voters. Late shifts could occur through heightened Republican mobilization in outlying precincts, turnout surges among specific demographics, or developments in the final weeks that alter statewide momentum before the November 3 general election.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於最新
最新
2026-11-03
阿卜杜勒·埃爾-薩耶德（民主黨）
93%
麥克・羅傑斯（共和黨）
8%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
阿卜杜勒·埃爾-薩耶德（民主黨）
$590 交易量
93%
麥克・羅傑斯（共和黨）
$300 交易量
8%
This market will resolve according to the party nominee or independent candidate that receives the most valid votes from Oakland County in the general election for United States Senator from Michigan, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Michigan, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Oakland County.Abdul El-Sayed's 93% implied probability to carry Oakland County reflects his nomination as the Democratic Senate candidate after a narrow August 2026 primary victory, combined with the county's recent voting patterns in suburban Detroit areas that have favored Democrats in statewide races. Mike Rogers, the Republican nominee running unopposed in his primary, trails at 8% amid polling that shows the overall Michigan contest remaining competitive. Trader consensus incorporates El-Sayed's consolidation of progressive and union support post-primary, alongside structural advantages in a county with significant independent and Democratic-leaning voters. Late shifts could occur through heightened Republican mobilization in outlying precincts, turnout surges among specific demographics, or developments in the final weeks that alter statewide momentum before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party nominee or independent candidate that receives the most valid votes from Oakland County in the general election for United States Senator from Michigan, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Michigan, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Oakland County.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Michigan, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Oakland County.
市場開放時間： Sep 1, 2026, 1:30 PM ET
交易量
$890結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Sep 1, 2026, 1:30 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the party nominee or independent candidate that receives the most valid votes from Oakland County in the general election for United States Senator from Michigan, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Michigan, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Oakland County.Abdul El-Sayed's 93% implied probability to carry Oakland County reflects his nomination as the Democratic Senate candidate after a narrow August 2026 primary victory, combined with the county's recent voting patterns in suburban Detroit areas that have favored Democrats in statewide races. Mike Rogers, the Republican nominee running unopposed in his primary, trails at 8% amid polling that shows the overall Michigan contest remaining competitive. Trader consensus incorporates El-Sayed's consolidation of progressive and union support post-primary, alongside structural advantages in a county with significant independent and Democratic-leaning voters. Late shifts could occur through heightened Republican mobilization in outlying precincts, turnout surges among specific demographics, or developments in the final weeks that alter statewide momentum before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party nominee or independent candidate that receives the most valid votes from Oakland County in the general election for United States Senator from Michigan, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Michigan, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Oakland County.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Michigan, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Oakland County.
交易量
$890結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Sep 1, 2026, 1:30 PM ETAbdul El-Sayed's 93% implied probability to carry Oakland County reflects his nomination as the Democratic Senate candidate after a narrow August 2026 primary victory, combined with the county's recent voting patterns in suburban Detroit areas that have favored Democrats in statewide races. Mike Rogers, the Republican nominee running unopposed in his primary, trails at 8% amid polling that shows the overall Michigan contest remaining competitive. Trader consensus incorporates El-Sayed's consolidation of progressive and union support post-primary, alongside structural advantages in a county with significant independent and Democratic-leaning voters. Late shifts could occur through heightened Republican mobilization in outlying precincts, turnout surges among specific demographics, or developments in the final weeks that alter statewide momentum before the November 3 general election.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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