The 2026 midterm environment in New York’s 17th congressional district, a Lower Hudson Valley swing seat carried by Kamala Harris in 2024 but narrowly held by Republican incumbent Mike Lawler, positions the Democratic nominee as the market favorite. Cait Conley secured the Democratic nomination in the June 23 primary with nearly half the vote, while Lawler advanced unopposed on the Republican side. Trader consensus reflects the district’s partisan lean and historical midterm patterns favoring the opposition party, though recent polling shows Lawler holding narrow leads in head-to-head matchups. Key variables include turnout among suburban voters, national economic conditions, and any late-cycle shifts in the closely divided House majority contest ahead of the November 3 general election.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於最新
最新
2026-11-04
民主黨
67%
共和黨
29%
最新
最新
2026-11-04
民主黨
$4,001 交易量
67%
共和黨
$4,893 交易量
29%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The 2026 midterm environment in New York’s 17th congressional district, a Lower Hudson Valley swing seat carried by Kamala Harris in 2024 but narrowly held by Republican incumbent Mike Lawler, positions the Democratic nominee as the market favorite. Cait Conley secured the Democratic nomination in the June 23 primary with nearly half the vote, while Lawler advanced unopposed on the Republican side. Trader consensus reflects the district’s partisan lean and historical midterm patterns favoring the opposition party, though recent polling shows Lawler holding narrow leads in head-to-head matchups. Key variables include turnout among suburban voters, national economic conditions, and any late-cycle shifts in the closely divided House majority contest ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
交易量
$8,894結束日期
2026-11-04市場開放時間
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The 2026 midterm environment in New York’s 17th congressional district, a Lower Hudson Valley swing seat carried by Kamala Harris in 2024 but narrowly held by Republican incumbent Mike Lawler, positions the Democratic nominee as the market favorite. Cait Conley secured the Democratic nomination in the June 23 primary with nearly half the vote, while Lawler advanced unopposed on the Republican side. Trader consensus reflects the district’s partisan lean and historical midterm patterns favoring the opposition party, though recent polling shows Lawler holding narrow leads in head-to-head matchups. Key variables include turnout among suburban voters, national economic conditions, and any late-cycle shifts in the closely divided House majority contest ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$8,894結束日期
2026-11-04市場開放時間
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm environment in New York’s 17th congressional district, a Lower Hudson Valley swing seat carried by Kamala Harris in 2024 but narrowly held by Republican incumbent Mike Lawler, positions the Democratic nominee as the market favorite. Cait Conley secured the Democratic nomination in the June 23 primary with nearly half the vote, while Lawler advanced unopposed on the Republican side. Trader consensus reflects the district’s partisan lean and historical midterm patterns favoring the opposition party, though recent polling shows Lawler holding narrow leads in head-to-head matchups. Key variables include turnout among suburban voters, national economic conditions, and any late-cycle shifts in the closely divided House majority contest ahead of the November 3 general election.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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