Strong momentum from AI-fueled corporate earnings growth and cooler-than-expected inflation data positions the >$8,000 bucket as the leading outcome at 38% implied probability. The S&P 500 recently closed at record levels near 7,800 in mid-August 2026 after softer CPI and PPI prints reduced odds of near-term Federal Reserve rate hikes, supporting risk appetite and tech leadership. Analyst targets from firms like Goldman Sachs and Citi cluster around 8,000–8,100, reflecting upgraded 2026 EPS estimates amid resilient margins. With roughly four months remaining, the $7,500–$8,000 range at 22.5% captures the base case of continued but moderating gains, while lower buckets reflect tail risks from potential policy shifts or earnings misses. Market-implied odds aggregate trader capital at risk, embedding current equity valuations, Treasury yields, and economic data releases.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於>8,000美元 35%
7,500-8,000美元 23%
6,500-7,000美元 13%
7,000-7,500 13%
$39,930 交易量
$39,930 交易量
2026-12-31
低於$6,000
6%
6,000-6,500美元
6%
6,500-7,000美元
13%
7,000-7,500
13%
7,500-8,000美元
23%
>8,000美元
38%
>8,000美元 35%
7,500-8,000美元 23%
6,500-7,000美元 13%
7,000-7,500 13%
$39,930 交易量
$39,930 交易量
2026-12-31
低於$6,000
$20,619 交易量
6%
6,000-6,500美元
$2,312 交易量
6%
6,500-7,000美元
$4,408 交易量
13%
7,000-7,500
$2,483 交易量
13%
7,500-8,000美元
$4,060 交易量
23%
>8,000美元
$6,048 交易量
38%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Strong momentum from AI-fueled corporate earnings growth and cooler-than-expected inflation data positions the >$8,000 bucket as the leading outcome at 38% implied probability. The S&P 500 recently closed at record levels near 7,800 in mid-August 2026 after softer CPI and PPI prints reduced odds of near-term Federal Reserve rate hikes, supporting risk appetite and tech leadership. Analyst targets from firms like Goldman Sachs and Citi cluster around 8,000–8,100, reflecting upgraded 2026 EPS estimates amid resilient margins. With roughly four months remaining, the $7,500–$8,000 range at 22.5% captures the base case of continued but moderating gains, while lower buckets reflect tail risks from potential policy shifts or earnings misses. Market-implied odds aggregate trader capital at risk, embedding current equity valuations, Treasury yields, and economic data releases.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
市場開放時間： Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
交易量
$39,930結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Strong momentum from AI-fueled corporate earnings growth and cooler-than-expected inflation data positions the >$8,000 bucket as the leading outcome at 38% implied probability. The S&P 500 recently closed at record levels near 7,800 in mid-August 2026 after softer CPI and PPI prints reduced odds of near-term Federal Reserve rate hikes, supporting risk appetite and tech leadership. Analyst targets from firms like Goldman Sachs and Citi cluster around 8,000–8,100, reflecting upgraded 2026 EPS estimates amid resilient margins. With roughly four months remaining, the $7,500–$8,000 range at 22.5% captures the base case of continued but moderating gains, while lower buckets reflect tail risks from potential policy shifts or earnings misses. Market-implied odds aggregate trader capital at risk, embedding current equity valuations, Treasury yields, and economic data releases.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
交易量
$39,930結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETStrong momentum from AI-fueled corporate earnings growth and cooler-than-expected inflation data positions the >$8,000 bucket as the leading outcome at 38% implied probability. The S&P 500 recently closed at record levels near 7,800 in mid-August 2026 after softer CPI and PPI prints reduced odds of near-term Federal Reserve rate hikes, supporting risk appetite and tech leadership. Analyst targets from firms like Goldman Sachs and Citi cluster around 8,000–8,100, reflecting upgraded 2026 EPS estimates amid resilient margins. With roughly four months remaining, the $7,500–$8,000 range at 22.5% captures the base case of continued but moderating gains, while lower buckets reflect tail risks from potential policy shifts or earnings misses. Market-implied odds aggregate trader capital at risk, embedding current equity valuations, Treasury yields, and economic data releases.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions