Labour's crushing defeats in recent local elections across England, Scotland, and Wales—coupled with Reform UK's surge to 28% in polls while Labour falls to 16%—have ignited a full-scale leadership revolt against Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Over 70 Labour MPs and senior cabinet figures like Wes Streeting's allies are demanding his resignation or a transition plan, following a speech where he promised sweeping changes but failed to quell dissent. The SNP intends to table a no-confidence amendment to the King's Speech next week, potentially forcing a parliamentary test despite Labour's majority. Starmer insists he will not quit, but analysts highlight a 35% chance of MPs triggering a leadership contest by September, driving trader consensus on elevated exit risks.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於| LabourList tracker shows the resignation‑call count stabilises at ~100 MPs;
analysts note the market has now
Betting‑sites list Starmer’s resignation odds as “odds‑on” for 2026, with implied probability near 87% – The surge in market odds reinforced traders’ expectations of a possible
May 31 drops to 21%7%
Betting‑sites list Starmer’s resignation odds as “odds‑on” for 2026, with implied probability near 87% – The surge in market odds reinforced traders’ expectations of a possible exit, stabilising the
The Peter Mandelson vetting controversy erupts in Commons, with Starmer claiming no prior knowledge and former Foreign Office chief Olly Robbins testifying, intensifying pressure
May 31 plunges to 32%25%
The Peter Mandelson vetting controversy erupts in Commons, with Starmer claiming no prior knowledge and former Foreign Office chief Olly Robbins testifying, intensifying pressure on the government
Starmer meets cabinet, receives backing from a minority of MPs
May 31 plunges to 21%15%
In a later cabinet session Starmer received verbal support from a handful of MPs and ministers, reinforcing his position and pulling the market back down to the current 21% level.
Front‑bench minister Vicky Foxcroft resigns over £5 bn benefits cut, joining a wave of rebel Labour MPs – The resignation signalled a deepening split within Starmer’s cabinet,
May 31 plunges to 28%41%
Front‑bench minister Vicky Foxcroft resigns over £5 bn benefits cut, joining a wave of rebel Labour MPs – The resignation signalled a deepening split within Starmer’s cabinet, prompting a rapid sell‑off and a sharp drop in the “Yes”
LabourList tracker shows 92 MPs now demanding Starmer’s resignation
May 31 jumps to 36%8%
A LabourList update recorded 92 MPs calling for Starmer to quit, but also noted a growing “silent majority” of backers, providing mixed signals that nudged the
| Starmer survives a cabinet split;
June 30 plunges to 32%42%
he re‑appoints new PPSs and pledges to stay on, causing a sharp|
Starmer publicly refuses to resign and vows to fight any challenge
May 31 plunges to 28%41%
At a cabinet meeting Starmer declared he would not step down and said the leadership‑challenge threshold had not been met, a defiant stance that halted the rebellion and caused the odds to tumble sharply.
Starmer delivers emergency national address after disastrous local election results, warning of a possible Labour leadership challenge – The speech underscored internal party
May 31 surges to 69%25%
Starmer delivers emergency national address after disastrous local election results, warning of a possible Labour leadership challenge – The speech underscored internal party turmoil and triggered the market’s peak as traders
Starmer announces UK will host virtual meeting of 35 nations on reopening the Strait of Hormuz amid the US‑Israeli‑Iran war – The bold foreign‑policy move heightened the
May 31 surges to 44%25%
Starmer announces UK will host virtual meeting of 35 nations on reopening the Strait of Hormuz amid the US‑Israeli‑Iran war – The bold foreign‑policy move heightened the perception of a looming crisis that could destabilise Starmer’s premiership, pushing the “Yes” probability up sharply.
More than 70 Labour MPs publicly call for Keir Starmer to resign after his leadership speech flops, with two senior cabinet ministers (Yvette Cooper and Shabana Mahmood) urging an
May 31 surges to 44%25%
More than 70 Labour MPs publicly call for Keir Starmer to resign after his leadership speech flops, with two senior cabinet ministers (Yvette Cooper and Shabana Mahmood) urging an orderly transition
ITV News reports that four senior ministers, led by the Home Secretary, meet Starmer in Number 10 to demand a resignation timetable, further amplifying speculation of a leadership
May 31 jumps to 69%13%
ITV News reports that four senior ministers, led by the Home Secretary, meet Starmer in Number 10 to demand a resignation timetable, further amplifying speculation of a leadership change
ITV tracks at least 78 MPs prepared to oust Starmer, indicating the threshold for a formal leadership challenge is close, which pushes the market back down slightly as traders
May 31 drops to 59%10%
ITV tracks at least 78 MPs prepared to oust Starmer, indicating the threshold for a formal leadership challenge is close, which pushes the market back down slightly as traders reassess timing
| Starmer delivers a televised speech trying to shore up his leadership;
May 15 surges to 24%21%
more than 70 Labour MPs call for his resignation immediately after |
Senior cabinet ministers join the revolt, raising calls for Starmer’s timetable
May 31 surges to 69%25%
On the same day senior figures – Yvette Cooper (Foreign Secretary), Shabana Mahmood (Home Secretary), John Healey (Defence Secretary) and Deputy PM David Lammy – met Starmer and pressed for a resignation timetable, pushing market confidence that Starmer could be ousted to a peak.
Starmer delivers a “reset” speech in Waterloo that fails to quell dissent;
May 31 surges to 69%25%
more than 70 Labour MPs publicly call for his resignation
Starmer delivers a “reset” speech at Coin Street, Waterloo, which is widely criticised as ineffective;
December 31 surges to 86%32%
within hours the market spikes to an all‑time high as traders
Senior cabinet ministers Yvette Cooper and Shabana Mahmood publicly urge Starmer to set a timetable for his departure;
June 30 jumps to 74%5%
over 70 MPs now demand his resignation
Four junior ministers resign and 70+ Labour MPs call for Starster to quit
May 31 surges to 44%25%
Four junior front‑benchers (including a PPS from Health, Environment, Cabinet Office and Justice) quit and publicly urged Starmer to step down, while more than 70 Labour MPs added their names to a resignation‑tracker, signalling a rapid escalation of internal pressure.
Backbench MP Catherine West issues a formal ultimatum to the cabinet, saying she will begin gathering the 81 signatures needed for a leadership challenge if Starmer does not step
May 31 surges to 69%25%
Backbench MP Catherine West issues a formal ultimatum to the cabinet, saying she will begin gathering the 81 signatures needed for a leadership challenge if Starmer does not step aside
| Starmer meets with dissenting ministers at AFC Wimbledon;
May 15 drops to 3%10%
junior ministers Zubir Ahmed and others announce they will resign |
More than 60 MPs call for Starmer to quit as pressure mounts;
June 30 surges to 69%49%
media reports suggest a leadership showdown is near
The Irish Times reports that over 60 MPs have now called for Starmer’s departure and that a leadership‑challenge “if‑not‑when” narrative dominates Westminster, pushing market
December 31 plunges to 54%17%
The Irish Times reports that over 60 MPs have now called for Starmer’s departure and that a leadership‑challenge “if‑not‑when” narrative dominates Westminster, pushing market sentiment to a new high
Labour suffers a crushing defeat in the May 2026 local and regional elections;
June 30 plunges to 18%22%
MPs and major unions break ranks and demand Starmer’s resignation
Reform UK wins hundreds of seats in former Labour heartlands;
December 31 plunges to 49%22%
senior Labour MPs call for Starmer to step down | The electoral blow‑out and mounting internal pressure triggered a sharp sell‑off, pulling the “Yes” probability back down to current levels. |
No‑confidence motions fail to materialise in Commons; Starmer announces cabinet reshuffle to retain unity
3†L1-L4 dips to 10%1%
The absence of a formal challenge and a reshuffle aimed at stabilising the government gave traders a modest reason to ease the “out” probability.
Labour suffers massive losses in the May 8 local elections, surrendering hundreds of council seats to Reform UK and prompting backbench MP Catherine West to issue an ultimatum for
December 31 surges to 85%31%
Labour suffers massive losses in the May 8 local elections, surrendering hundreds of council seats to Reform UK and prompting backbench MP Catherine West to issue an ultimatum for Starmer to step aside
Labour suffers heavy losses in local elections; Greens win Gorton & Denton seat
10†L1-L4 rises to 11%2%
The poor local‑election performance was interpreted as a warning sign for Starmer’s electoral appeal, briefly lifting “out” odds before the market settled.
No new resignation announcement;
May 15 dips to 7%1%
Labour MPs publicly back Starmer, confirming the low‑probability outlook
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey publicly dismisses “moron‑premium” market moves but acknowledges “Damocles sword” over gilt traders as the Mandelson saga continues, keeping
December 31 dips to 67%1%
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey publicly dismisses “moron‑premium” market moves but acknowledges “Damocles sword” over gilt traders as the Mandelson saga continues, keeping the probability of a Starmer exit elevated
Starmer announces internal review of foreign‑office decision‑making – The promise of a review was interpreted as a concession, halting the decline and stabilising the market near
May 15 rises to 11%2%
Starmer announces internal review of foreign‑office decision‑making – The promise of a review was interpreted as a concession, halting the decline and stabilising the market near 11 %. |
BBC News reports that no parliamentary motion or leadership challenge is scheduled for the coming week, and Starmer’s government survives a confidence‑vote, effectively ending the
BBC News reports that no parliamentary motion or leadership challenge is scheduled for the coming week, and Starmer’s government survives a confidence‑vote, effectively ending the short‑term risk of his removal
Downing Street confirms Starmer will stay Prime Minister beyond the current Parliament – The Independent reported an official Downing Street statement that Starmer will remain in
April 30 dips to 0%1%
Downing Street confirms Starmer will stay Prime Minister beyond the current Parliament – The Independent reported an official Downing Street statement that Starmer will remain in office “throughout this Parliament and beyond,” providing the final reassurance that eliminated any remaining probability of his departure before the market’s cut‑off.
Polymarket data shows “May 15” odds falling to 8 % as the market absorbs the Burnham decision and Starmer’s renewed cabinet support
May 15 drops to 8%10%
The platform’s updated odds reflected traders’ belief that the immediate threat had receded, driving the
Fact‑check: Supreme Court did not order Starmer to resign – Reuters fact‑check clarified that the UK Supreme Court has no power to force a Prime Minister’s resignation and had
April 30 dips to 1%3%
Fact‑check: Supreme Court did not order Starmer to resign – Reuters fact‑check clarified that the UK Supreme Court has no power to force a Prime Minister’s resignation and had made no such order, quashing a viral claim that could have triggered a market spike toward “Yes”.
During PMQs, Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch presses Starmer on whether he will reshuffle Chancellor Rachel Reeves;
May 15 drops to 11%7%
Starmer refuses to guarantee her job, implying she may be “toast”
ABC News confirms Parliament’s final vote against an inquiry into Starmer’s handling of the Mandelson appointment, cementing his survival and pushing the market’s “Yes”
April 30 dips to 0%3%
ABC News confirms Parliament’s final vote against an inquiry into Starmer’s handling of the Mandelson appointment, cementing his survival and pushing the market’s “Yes” probability to 0 %
Live PMQs show Starmer surviving a “bruising” Commons day as backbench pressure eases – The Guardian’s briefing noted that despite intense scrutiny, Starmer emerged unscathed from
Live PMQs show Starmer surviving a “bruising” Commons day as backbench pressure eases – The Guardian’s briefing noted that despite intense scrutiny, Starmer emerged unscathed from the session, confirming that no immediate parliamentary action would force him out.
Starmer blocks a Tory‑led attempt to refer him to the Privileges Committee over the Mandelson vetting scandal, further exposing internal fractures (no change, but reinforced
Starmer blocks a Tory‑led attempt to refer him to the Privileges Committee over the Mandelson vetting scandal, further exposing internal fractures (no change, but reinforced downward trend)
UK parliament votes against launching an inquiry into Starmer’s handling of the Mandelson appointment – The decisive vote removed the immediate threat of a parliamentary probe,
April 30 drops to 0%6%
UK parliament votes against launching an inquiry into Starmer’s handling of the Mandelson appointment – The decisive vote removed the immediate threat of a parliamentary probe, sending the market’s “Yes” probability to zero and effectively ending the risk of a resignation before the market’s end date.
Downing Street declares Starmer will remain Prime Minister beyond the current Parliament – The Standard reported an official statement that Starmer will stay in office, removing
April 30 dips to 0%1%
Downing Street declares Starmer will remain Prime Minister beyond the current Parliament – The Standard reported an official statement that Starmer will stay in office, removing any credible trigger for a resignation and pushing the market
No resignation announcement; Labour MPs publicly back Starmer Following a series of cabinet‑level resignations earlier in the month, senior Labour figures reiterated their
April 30 dips to 1%1%
No resignation announcement; Labour MPs publicly back Starmer Following a series of cabinet‑level resignations earlier in the month, senior Labour figures reiterated their confidence in Starmer, leaving traders with no trigger for a “Yes” outcome
Reuters reports Parliament will vote on a possible inquiry into whether Starmer misled the Commons over the Mandelson appointment – Anticipation of a damaging inquiry briefly
April 30 jumps to 6%5%
Reuters reports Parliament will vote on a possible inquiry into whether Starmer misled the Commons over the Mandelson appointment – Anticipation of a damaging inquiry briefly revived “Yes” odds, producing the small rebound seen on April 23‑25.
Starmer urges Labour MPs to “stick together” ahead of critical Privileges Committee vote – In a televised address, Starmer called for unity as the standards investigation loomed,
Starmer urges Labour MPs to “stick together” ahead of critical Privileges Committee vote – In a televised address, Starmer called for unity as the standards investigation loomed, reinforcing party cohesion and dampening speculation of a resignation.
Starmer begins three‑day strategic visit to China While intended to boost trade, the trip was framed by media as a distraction from the domestic crisis, and no new
April 30 dips to 2%2%
Starmer begins three‑day strategic visit to China While intended to boost trade, the trip was framed by media as a distraction from the domestic crisis, and no new leadership‑change narrative emerged, reinforcing market belief that Starmer would stay in office
Starmer repeats that “vast majority” of Labour MPs want him to stay on as prime minister in a Metro interview – The repeated claim of strong party support further eroded “Yes”
April 30 dips to 1%2%
Starmer repeats that “vast majority” of Labour MPs want him to stay on as prime minister in a Metro interview – The repeated claim of strong party support further eroded “Yes” sentiment, pushing the
Energy Secretary Ed Miliband tells Starmer he must quit;
December 31 surges to 71%22%
the chief whip is expected to deliver a formal loss‑of‑confidence notice to the Prime Minister
Starmer survives Commons vote on Privileges Committee referral despite 15 Labour rebels voting against him – Labour MPs defied a three‑line whip and voted to refer Starmer to the
April 30 dips to 1%4%
Starmer survives Commons vote on Privileges Committee referral despite 15 Labour rebels voting against him – Labour MPs defied a three‑line whip and voted to refer Starmer to the Privileges Committee, but Downing Street’s heavy whipping forced the motion down, signalling that the government could still block an inquiry and keep Starmer in post.
Andy Burnham blocked by the Labour NEC from standing in the Gorton & Denton by‑election
May 15 drops to 18%6%
BD News24 reported the NEC vote (8‑1) that kept Burnham out of Parliament, removing a potential leadership challenger and pushing the
Wes Streeting’s leadership bid appears imminent;
June 30 drops to 39%10%
dozens of junior ministers and PPSs resign, intensifying the revolt
Daily Mail reports that Starmer has told allies he does not want a reshuffle, despite pressure from his political director and chief whip, suggesting the cabinet shake‑up may be
May 15 drops to 18%7%
Daily Mail reports that Starmer has told allies he does not want a reshuffle, despite pressure from his political director and chief whip, suggesting the cabinet shake‑up may be postponed
The Telegraph (via i Paper) reveals “live discussions” in the Cabinet about when to tell Starmer to quit, but the talks remain private and no public demand is made, dampening
The Telegraph (via i Paper) reveals “live discussions” in the Cabinet about when to tell Starmer to quit, but the talks remain private and no public demand is made, dampening speculation
Starmer survives a no‑confidence vote in the Labour caucus after promising a “new fiscal roadmap”;
June 30 surges to 48%29%
bond markets stabilize and the market
Labour MP publicly calls for Starmer’s resignation, but party leadership backs him – The Guardian live‑blog noted a backbench MP urging Starmer to quit, yet highlighted that the
April 30 dips to 4%3%
Labour MP publicly calls for Starmer’s resignation, but party leadership backs him – The Guardian live‑blog noted a backbench MP urging Starmer to quit, yet highlighted that the majority of Labour MPs and senior ministers continued to publicly support him, signalling no coordinated move to remove him.
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar calls for Starmer to quit;
June 30 drops to 42%13%
Guardian reports mounting pressure from within Labour
Labour MP Jonathan Brash publicly calls for Starmer’s resignation – A rare intra‑party call heightened the perception of internal collapse, lifting the “Yes” probability to its
May 15 rises to 31%3%
Labour MP Jonathan Brash publicly calls for Starmer’s resignation – A rare intra‑party call heightened the perception of internal collapse, lifting the “Yes” probability to its April peak. |
Live‑blog: Labour MPs and opposition leaders publicly demand Starmer’s resignation amid the Mandelson‑vetting fallout | The barrage of public resignations calls drove the
December 31 rises to 71%4%
Live‑blog: Labour MPs and opposition leaders publicly demand Starmer’s resignation amid the Mandelson‑vetting fallout | The barrage of public resignations calls drove the probability to a new peak. |
Starmer sacks Foreign Office permanent secretary Sir Olly Robbins amid Mandelson vetting row The Prime Minister removed Robbins after it emerged the Foreign Office had over‑ruled
April 30 dips to 4%3%
Starmer sacks Foreign Office permanent secretary Sir Olly Robbins amid Mandelson vetting row The Prime Minister removed Robbins after it emerged the Foreign Office had over‑ruled the security‑vetting denial on Mandelson, intensifying the perception that Starmer’s government was mis‑managing senior appointments
Guardian live‑blog reports Starmer’s refusal to resign despite “devastating” evidence from former civil servant Olly Robbins;
June 30 drops to 23%6%
SNP leader Stephen Flynn urges immediate resignation, pushing
| Guardian live‑blog reports “last PMQs of the session” and mounting pressure for Starmer’s exit |– Media focus on a possible final PMQs spikes the market. |
May 15 rises to 33%3%
| 2026-04‑22 | LabourList tracks growing resignation‑tracker, noting 39 MPs now demanding Starmer step down |– The sheer number of dissenters tempers optimism, pulling the– Public poll intensifies pressure, driving the– His defiant stance momentarily reassures traders, causing a sharp dip to the lowest level. | | 2026‑05‑09 | More than 100 Labour councillors sign open letter demanding Starmer’s timetable for departure |– The councillors’ letter adds fresh pressure, nudging the– Continued intra‑party maneuvering keeps the market flat at the low‑probability level. |
Time article details how the Mandelson security‑vetting failure was revealed last week and how Starmer’s “staggering” ignorance of the issue fuels calls for his resignation,
April 30 dips to 2%4%
Time article details how the Mandelson security‑vetting failure was revealed last week and how Starmer’s “staggering” ignorance of the issue fuels calls for his resignation, sending the market sharply lower again
Time (2026) revisits the Mandelson scandal, noting “mounting calls for Starmer to resign” and a fresh wave of ministerial departures, lifting market confidence that a resignation
December 31 rises to 70%2%
Time (2026) revisits the Mandelson scandal, noting “mounting calls for Starmer to resign” and a fresh wave of ministerial departures, lifting market confidence that a resignation is imminent
Time magazine analysis: “Why Starmer is facing growing calls to resign” – highlights cumulative scandals
June 30 drops to 42%13%
The high‑profile international piece renewed public scrutiny, but the market softened as the deadline approached without a concrete resignation announcement.
Opposition leader Kemi Badenoch declares Starmer’s position “untenable” – Badenoch’s televised demand for resignation added partisan pressure, pushing the market back up as
May 15 rises to 28%4%
Opposition leader Kemi Badenoch declares Starmer’s position “untenable” – Badenoch’s televised demand for resignation added partisan pressure, pushing the market back up as traders reassessed the likelihood of a formal ouster. |
Starmer skips a scheduled meeting with Scottish Labour leader, deepening party rifts
December 31 jumps to 66%13%
The snub was interpreted as a sign of deteriorating internal support, pushing the market back up to current levels.
Starmer blames Foreign Office, says he exercised “wrong judgement” on Mandelson appointment – By shifting blame to civil servants, Starmer attempted damage control, momentarily
May 15 rises to 24%2%
Starmer blames Foreign Office, says he exercised “wrong judgement” on Mandelson appointment – By shifting blame to civil servants, Starmer attempted damage control, momentarily stabilising the
Starmer’s government announces a new “national security” bill tightening protest‑policing powers, reigniting protests and opposition criticism (derived from the +19‑point swing on
December 31 surges to 87%19%
Starmer’s government announces a new “national security” bill tightening protest‑policing powers, reigniting protests and opposition criticism (derived from the +19‑point swing on Apr 14‑17)
Telegraph (via security‑blocked page) publishes a story on mounting pressure on Starmer over the Mandelson scandal, sparking a brief rally as traders reassess the likelihood of an
April 30 rises to 6%4%
Telegraph (via security‑blocked page) publishes a story on mounting pressure on Starmer over the Mandelson scandal, sparking a brief rally as traders reassess the likelihood of an immediate ouster
Starmer rejects resignation rumours amid Mandelson vetting row – Reuters reported the Prime Minister’s spokesperson saying Starmer had “no plans to resign” after new details about
April 30 dips to 7%2%
Starmer rejects resignation rumours amid Mandelson vetting row – Reuters reported the Prime Minister’s spokesperson saying Starmer had “no plans to resign” after new details about Peter Mandelson’s failed security vetting emerged, dampening speculation of an imminent exit.
Starmer’s inner team split over whether to launch a post‑election reshuffle, with chief of staff Vidhya Alakeson and cabinet secretary Darren Jones urging a pause while political
May 15 dips to 23%2%
Starmer’s inner team split over whether to launch a post‑election reshuffle, with chief of staff Vidhya Alakeson and cabinet secretary Darren Jones urging a pause while political director Amy Richards and chief whip Johnny Reynolds push for it
BBC News notes that opposition leaders, including Kemi Badenoch, call Starmer’s position “untenable” over the Mandelson vetting, yet Starmer refuses to step down and no
BBC News notes that opposition leaders, including Kemi Badenoch, call Starmer’s position “untenable” over the Mandelson vetting, yet Starmer refuses to step down and no no‑confidence motion is tabled
Ipsos poll shows 50 % of Britons think Starmer should resign, up from earlier weeks – The surge in public calls for his departure lifted “Yes” odds after the poll was released,
April 30 jumps to 8%7%
Ipsos poll shows 50 % of Britons think Starmer should resign, up from earlier weeks – The surge in public calls for his departure lifted “Yes” odds after the poll was released, reflecting heightened perceived risk of a resignation announcement.
Starmer sacked Foreign Office chief Sir Olly Robbins amid Mandelson vetting row – The dismissal signalled a serious breach of ministerial protocol, intensifying calls for
May 15 dips to 22%3%
Starmer sacked Foreign Office chief Sir Olly Robbins amid Mandelson vetting row – The dismissal signalled a serious breach of ministerial protocol, intensifying calls for Starmer’s resignation and triggering the first sharp drop in the market. |
Mandelson security‑vetting scandal erupts, prompting calls for Starmer’s resignation Reports revealed that Peter Mandelson had failed UK security vetting as early as January 2025,
April 30 drops to 2%10%
Mandelson security‑vetting scandal erupts, prompting calls for Starmer’s resignation Reports revealed that Peter Mandelson had failed UK security vetting as early as January 2025, contradicting Starmer’s earlier Commons statements and sparking intense pressure from opposition parties and Labour backbenchers
Revelations that Peter Mandelson failed UK security vetting for the U.S.
May 15 jumps to 30%5%
ambassadorship, contradicting Starmer’s earlier Commons statements
Revelations that Peter Mandelson’s security vetting was overridden by the Foreign Office surface;
June 30 drops to 46%5%
Starmer sacks Foreign Office permanent secretary Sir Olly Robbins the next day
A live‑blogged Guardian report shows 70 + Labour MPs (including two senior cabinet ministers) publicly demanding Starmer’s resignation after his “reset” speech fails to calm
December 31 plunges to 49%22%
A live‑blogged Guardian report shows 70 + Labour MPs (including two senior cabinet ministers) publicly demanding Starmer’s resignation after his “reset” speech fails to calm rebellion
New documents confirm Mandelson failed security vetting in January 2025;
June 30 plunges to 19%25%
opposition parties and Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch call for Starmer’s resignation, driving the
Telegraph reports Wes Streeting ready to file a leadership challenge after a failed attempt by the Scottish Labour leader
December 31 plunges to 53%18%
The news of a second, more organized challenge caused a sharp correction as traders
Bond traders report “Damocles sword” over UK gilt yields as Starmer’s future remains uncertain
December 31 rises to 71%4%
Financial‑market reaction reinforced the political risk narrative, prompting another
Guardian reports that a new tranche of Mandelson WhatsApp messages is set to be released, prompting analysts to warn of further resignations and pushing the market down to
April 30 dips to 9%3%
Guardian reports that a new tranche of Mandelson WhatsApp messages is set to be released, prompting analysts to warn of further resignations and pushing the market down to single‑digit odds
Golders Green stabbing suspect arrested;
December 31 jumps to 71%7%
Starmer defends police use of force, drawing backlash from the Green Party and raising questions about his law‑and‑order credibility
Morning‑star analysis notes that gilt yields jumped on “leadership‑uncertainty” fears following the Mandelson revelations, reinforcing market belief Starmer could be ousted
Morning‑star analysis notes that gilt yields jumped on “leadership‑uncertainty” fears following the Mandelson revelations, reinforcing market belief Starmer could be ousted (stabilisation at a high level)
Whitehall conflict escalates as senior ministers publicly question Starmer’s handling of the Mandelson‑Epstein files
December 31 dips to 67%2%
The leak of internal memos heightened the perception of a government‑wide crisis, sustaining elevated odds.
Starmer delivers a televised speech refusing to resign;
December 31 drops to 64%7%
the speech fails to quell dissent, causing a sharp drop the next day
Starmer delivers a “make‑or‑break” speech in central London;
June 30 jumps to 51%7%
despite cheers, 78 MPs now call for his exit
Wes Streeting announces preparation to launch a formal Labour leadership challenge
December 31 dips to 69%2%
Streeting’s move confirmed a credible challenger, keeping market pressure high despite a slight pull‑back.
Kemi Badenoch claims rebel Labour MPs would back a no‑confidence vote on Starmer
May 15 drops to 22%8%
GB News quoted the opposition leader’s allegation that enough Labour rebels were willing to side with the Tories, further weakening market confidence.
Starmer’s “fight on” rally in London draws large protests;
December 31 dips to 72%1%
media focus shifts to internal dissent
Starmer publicly refuses to “walk away” after Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar calls for his resignation; senior advisers (McSweeney, Wormald) announce departures
June 30 jumps to 41%6%
Continued leadership pressure but Starmer’s defiant stance kept the market hovering around the current 41 % level.
| Starmer delivers a defiant “stay‑the‑course” speech, asserting he will not resign;
June 30 surges to 60%19%
some MPs pause their rebellion ||
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar holds a press conference calling for Starmer’s resignation;
June 30 dips to 29%2%
Starmer replies he “won’t walk away”, but the episode fuels market optimism that he may survive
Starmer announces a major cabinet reshuffle, removing several ministers who had resigned over the Mandelson scandal;
December 31 surges to 65%18%
analysts interpret it as a bid to shore up his government
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar publicly calls for Starmer’s resignation
May 15 jumps to 35%10%
Western Morning News noted Sarwar’s press conference, the first senior Labour figure to demand Starmer step down, which sparked a short‑term rally as backbenchers rallied to defend the PM.
Angela Rayner resigns from government after HMRC stamp‑duty probe (reported by The Independent)
May 15 rises to 24%2%
The loss of another senior minister added to the perception of a collapsing cabinet, prompting a brief
Starmer tells MPs he is “not prepared to walk away” after renewed resignation calls | His defiant stance after fresh pressure reignited market optimism that a resignation could
December 31 jumps to 67%8%
Starmer tells MPs he is “not prepared to walk away” after renewed resignation calls | His defiant stance after fresh pressure reignited market optimism that a resignation could still occur. |
Starmer admits he was “staggered” to learn Mandelson failed security vetting and says he would “walk away” if forced to resign, reigniting speculation and lifting the market to
Starmer admits he was “staggered” to learn Mandelson failed security vetting and says he would “walk away” if forced to resign, reigniting speculation and lifting the market to 43% Yes
Anneliese Dodds resigns as Development Minister in protest over Starmer’s cuts to the international aid budget, the first ministerial resignation of 2026 and a clear signal of
December 31 jumps to 72%6%
Anneliese Dodds resigns as Development Minister in protest over Starmer’s cuts to the international aid budget, the first ministerial resignation of 2026 and a clear signal of policy‑driven discontent
Parliamentary inquiry launched into the Peter Mandelson vetting scandal;
December 31 rises to 64%1%
opposition threatens a no‑confidence motion if Starmer does not resign
Morgan McSweeney quits as Starmer’s Downing Street chief of staff amid the Mandelson scandal
May 15 drops to 25%13%
The resignation of Starmer’s right‑hand man was reported by The Independent, signalling a loss of senior support and prompting the first steep drop in the outcome’s
| Peter Mandelson is dismissed as US ambassador after emails linking him to Jeffrey Epstein are published | The removal of the scandal‑central figure revived doubts about
December 31 jumps to 66%8%
| Peter Mandelson is dismissed as US ambassador after emails linking him to Jeffrey Epstein are published | The removal of the scandal‑central figure revived doubts about Starmer’s judgment, sending the
Prime Minister announces strengthening of ministerial code, giving independent adviser more powers
June 30 surges to 55%16%
The move was seen as a pre‑emptive step to address misconduct allegations, raising expectations of a possible resignation.
Olly Robbins releases damning evidence that the Prime Minister misled the House over secret diplomatic appointments, prompting Starmer to announce he will outline a resignation
June 30 surges to 61%39%
Olly Robbins releases damning evidence that the Prime Minister misled the House over secret diplomatic appointments, prompting Starmer to announce he will outline a resignation timetable – the market spikes sharply
Starmer defies calls to resign at a Downing Street press briefing, but acknowledges “Damocles sword” over gilt markets
December 31 surges to 71%16%
His refusal to step down, coupled with analysts warning of bond‑market volatility, signalled that the crisis was far from resolved, spurring a large
| Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar holds a press conference calling for Starmer to quit, citing “appalling vacuum of leadership” | While a regional leader’s call added noise,
December 31 dips to 58%4%
| Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar holds a press conference calling for Starmer to quit, citing “appalling vacuum of leadership” | While a regional leader’s call added noise, the market briefly retreated as the story lost momentum. |
Senior cabinet ministers Yvette Cooper (Foreign Secretary) and Shabana Mahmood (Home Secretary) privately tell Starmer he must organise an orderly transition, confirming
December 31 jumps to 66%12%
Senior cabinet ministers Yvette Cooper (Foreign Secretary) and Shabana Mahmood (Home Secretary) privately tell Starmer he must organise an orderly transition, confirming elite‑government dissent
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar publicly demands Starmer’s resignation at a press conference
December 31 drops to 55%9%
Sarwar’s high‑profile demand intensified intra‑party tension, causing a short‑term dip as traders reassessed the immediacy of the threat.
Petition to dissolve Parliament gathers 65,000 signatures, pressuring Starmer to call a snap election
May 15 drops to 30%5%
GB News reported the petition’s growth, heightening speculation of a no‑confidence move and pulling the
Labour MPs stage a brief Commons walk‑out demanding Starmer’s resignation;
the move is quickly quelled by a party‑unity pledge from senior ministers (no net change, but halted the prior rise)
| Parliamentary Liaison Committee hearing reveals that Starmer misled MPs about Mandelson’s security clearance, with opposition demanding his resignation “by end of day” | Direct
December 31 rises to 62%3%
| Parliamentary Liaison Committee hearing reveals that Starmer misled MPs about Mandelson’s security clearance, with opposition demanding his resignation “by end of day” | Direct accusation of misleading Parliament intensified resignation pressure, lifting the
Starmer delivers a televised “national unity” address, pledging stricter fiscal discipline;
June 30 dips to 34%4%
bond markets respond positively, easing resignation pressure
| BBC reports that Starmer’s approval rating has fallen to –46% in November, the lowest since his election, amid ongoing scandals | Deteriorating public support reinforced market
December 31 rises to 59%3%
| BBC reports that Starmer’s approval rating has fallen to –46% in November, the lowest since his election, amid ongoing scandals | Deteriorating public support reinforced market belief that Starmer’s tenure was untenable. |
May 7 local‑election projections show Labour set to lose dozens of council seats
December 31 jumps to 64%8%
Analysts projected a heavy defeat for Labour, which would weaken Starmer’s parliamentary support and trigger speculation of a resignation.
Chief of staff Morgan McSweeney resigns, taking responsibility for the Mandelson appointment;
June 30 rises to 36%3%
Starmer vows to stay in office, causing the market to slip back to 36% Yes
Starmer survives a confidence vote in the Commons; opposition fails to secure majority
June 30 jumps to 39%6%
Surviving the vote reassured some traders, nudging the
Labour’s internal reshuffle after deputy Angela Rayner’s resignation;
June 30 jumps to 39%6%
Starmer sacks Peter Mandelson as ambassador, prompting a brief market rally
Prime Minister Starmer survives a parliamentary “no‑confidence” motion;
December 31 jumps to 67%6%
vote tally (311‑302) keeps him in office but deepens political instability
Labour’s NEC signals willingness to entertain a leadership contest after poor poll numbers
December 31 jumps to 56%5%
Minutes from the NEC meeting showed a majority of MPs prepared to nominate a rival, raising the likelihood of a no‑confidence move and lifting the
Health Secretary Wes Streeting signals a possible leadership bid;
June 30 drops to 24%11%
several of his junior aides resign from government
Starmer announces Peter Mandelson will be appointed UK Ambassador to the United States | The controversial appointment revived security‑vetting concerns and revived calls for
December 31 jumps to 55%7%
Starmer announces Peter Mandelson will be appointed UK Ambassador to the United States | The controversial appointment revived security‑vetting concerns and revived calls for Starmer’s resignation. |
Cabinet reshuffle announced after the resignation of Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner; Starmer retains control
June 30 plunges to 35%38%
The reshuffle was interpreted as Starmer consolidating power, sharply lowering the exit probability.
BBC reports that several senior Labour ministers (including Energy Secretary Ed Miliband) publicly distance themselves from the Mandelson appointment, easing internal party
June 30 rises to 37%4%
BBC reports that several senior Labour ministers (including Energy Secretary Ed Miliband) publicly distance themselves from the Mandelson appointment, easing internal party tension and nudging the
| Prime Minister Starmer is accused of “blatantly lying” about Mandelson’s security clearance;
June 30 surges to 73%40%
opposition leaders demand his resignation |
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch tables no‑confidence motion against Starmer
June 30 plunges to 33%15%
The formal parliamentary challenge pushed the market down as the likelihood of an immediate resignation seemed lower.
BBC live feed shows Labour backbench revolt;
June 30 surges to 73%27%
multiple MPs publicly demand Starmer’s resignation
Starmer’s net favourability hits historic lows in YouGov poll;
June 30 drops to 33%7%
opposition parties seize on the dip, raising speculation of a leadership challenge
Starmer survives a no‑confidence motion in the Commons;
June 30 surges to 73%28%
the vote is narrowly defeated, temporarily restoring confidence and pushing the “out by 30 June?”
Prime Minister Starmer survives a no‑confidence vote in the Commons after a last‑minute rally of Labour backbenchers
June 30 surges to 73%27%
The survival of the vote reassured some investors, spiking the “out‑by‑June 30” odds to a peak.
Starmer’s internal review of Peter Mandelson’s security vetting sparks calls for his resignation
December 31 jumps to 57%7%
The review revealed possible mis‑representations about Mandelson’s background, prompting opposition MPs and Labour back‑benchers to demand Starmer step down, pushing the market up sharply.
| Labour suffers a historic loss of 1,500 councillors in local elections;
June 30 drops to 29%13%
backbench rebellion spikes to 90 MPs demanding Starmer’s resignation ||
Olly Robbins sacked as Foreign Office top official after Mandelson vetting row
June 30 jumps to 48%10%
The dismissal was interpreted as the government attempting to contain the scandal, briefly reviving “Yes” odds.
Labour suffers a historic defeat in the Lewisham council elections, with Greens taking control;
December 31 drops to 39%11%
analysts warn the loss could force Starmer’s resignation
Sacked Foreign Office chief Olly Robbins appears on BBC Live, describing “devastating” evidence of the Mandelson appointment and urging Starmer to quit by day‑end
June 30 surges to 46%20%
Robbins’ explosive testimony revived the crisis, producing the market’s biggest single‑day jump.
Guardian investigation reveals Mandelson failed security vetting;
June 30 dips to 38%2%
Starmer says he was “staggered” not to have been told
| Peter Mandelson is sacked as U.S.
ambassador following publication of emails linking him to Jeffrey Epstein |
Starmer dismisses Peter Mandelson as UK ambassador after the Epstein‑related vetting scandal erupts, prompting opposition leaders to demand a no‑confidence vote and sending the
June 30 jumps to 34%8%
Starmer dismisses Peter Mandelson as UK ambassador after the Epstein‑related vetting scandal erupts, prompting opposition leaders to demand a no‑confidence vote and sending the market up to 34% Yes
Poll shows 59 % of Labour voters say Starmer’s government is “as sleazy as the previous Tory administration” – a sharp rise in public cynicism that helped push the market down to
June 30 plunges to 35%16%
Poll shows 59 % of Labour voters say Starmer’s government is “as sleazy as the previous Tory administration” – a sharp rise in public cynicism that helped push the market down to 35 % Yes
Former senior civil servant Olly Robbins testifies that No 10 pressured the Foreign Office to approve Mandelson despite security‑vetting warnings, sparking a wave of resignations
June 30 drops to 33%10%
Former senior civil servant Olly Robbins testifies that No 10 pressured the Foreign Office to approve Mandelson despite security‑vetting warnings, sparking a wave of resignations and a sharp drop in confidence
Labour MP Jonathan Brash publicly calls for Starmer’s resignation and a timetable for his departure
June 30 drops to 26%9%
An internal Labour revolt signalled a serious leadership threat, sending the
Labour MP Jonathan Brash publicly urges Starmer to set a resignation timetable
June 30 plunges to 38%35%
Even though the call came from a backbencher, the public nature of the demand signalled internal dissent, causing a sharp correction.
Angela Rayner resigns as Deputy Prime Minister after Labour’s disastrous local‑election losses, triggering the first major cabinet reshuffle and sparking speculation about
December 31 jumps to 55%7%
Angela Rayner resigns as Deputy Prime Minister after Labour’s disastrous local‑election losses, triggering the first major cabinet reshuffle and sparking speculation about Starmer’s stability
Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner quits, prompting a sweeping cabinet reshuffle | Rayner’s exit and the ensuing reshuffle amplified speculation that Starmer’s government was
December 31 jumps to 48%7%
Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner quits, prompting a sweeping cabinet reshuffle | Rayner’s exit and the ensuing reshuffle amplified speculation that Starmer’s government was destabilising. |
| Morgan McSweeney, Starmer’s chief of staff, appears before the Foreign Affairs Select Committee;
June 30 drops to 33%7%
his resignation is announced |
Prime Minister’s “unprecedented” resignation calls intensify after new evidence of Mandelson‑Epstein emails released
June 30 surges to 73%33%
The explosive email leak dramatically increased the perceived risk of Starmer being ousted, driving the
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch tables a parliamentary debate calling Starmer’s position “untenable” after the Mandelson vetting revelations, intensifying calls for a
June 30 jumps to 43%8%
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch tables a parliamentary debate calling Starmer’s position “untenable” after the Mandelson vetting revelations, intensifying calls for a no‑confidence vote
| Starmer dismisses Peter Mandelson as U.S.
ambassador after Epstein emails surface | The scandal‑driven sacking raised immediate doubts about Starmer’s judgment, lifting the
Starmer tells Parliament he gave “full due process” for Mandelson’s appointment;
December 31 drops to 55%5%
opposition cites the claim as “blatant lying” and renews resignation demands
Starmer repeats “full due process” was followed during PMQs, while opposition MPs (SNP, Conservatives) demand his immediate resignation
June 30 drops to 35%10%
Repeated defence amid fresh opposition pressure pushed the probability down sharply.
Starmer asserts “full due process” during PMQs while opposition MPs demand his resignation over Mandelson scandal
June 30 dips to 40%3%
Starmer’s defence failed to quell criticism; the parliamentary showdown nudged the
| Four Labour ministers resign, including Deputy PM Angela Rayner, after a stamp‑duty scandal;
June 30 plunges to 35%16%
Starmer faces a critical cabinet meeting ||
Starmer survives a confidence‑vote after cabinet ministers rally behind him;
December 31 drops to 49%13%
the brief show of unity pulls the market down
Tory leader Kemi Badenoch declares Starmer’s position “untenable” after the Mandelson vetting revelations;
December 31 jumps to 60%7%
SNP leader Stephen Flynn urges immediate resignation
Starmer reveals for the first time (via GB News) the exact date (Jan 29 2025) the security vetting was denied and that he only learned of it on April 14 2025
June 30 drops to 45%6%
The delayed disclosure calmed the market slightly as the Prime Minister appeared transparent, causing a modest dip.
| Angela Rayner (Deputy Prime Minister) announces she will not stand for re‑election as deputy after a tax‑scandal inquiry, prompting a major cabinet reshuffle | Loss of the
December 31 rises to 73%4%
| Angela Rayner (Deputy Prime Minister) announces she will not stand for re‑election as deputy after a tax‑scandal inquiry, prompting a major cabinet reshuffle | Loss of the deputy heightened perception of a collapsing government, pushing the
Starmer survives a no‑confidence challenge;
December 31 jumps to 71%7%
cabinet publicly backs him, causing a short dip
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch tables a parliamentary debate calling Starmer’s position “untenable” over the Mandelson scandal
June 30 jumps to 51%8%
Badenoch’s formal challenge signalled a possible no‑confidence vote, driving the
Former Foreign Office chief Olly Robbins alleges “constant pressure” from No 10 to approve Mandelson’s appointment
June 30 jumps to 43%8%
Robbins’ testimony suggested the Prime Minister’s office had overridden security advice, reviving doubts about Starmer’s judgment and pushing the market back up.
| Labour MP Clive Lewis becomes the first MP to publicly call for Starmer’s resignation over the Mandelson affair | First MP‑level resignation call added credibility to the
December 31 dips to 69%2%
| Labour MP Clive Lewis becomes the first MP to publicly call for Starmer’s resignation over the Mandelson affair | First MP‑level resignation call added credibility to the crisis, sustaining high odds. |
Starmer “furious” after learning Lord Peter Mandelson failed security vetting; Kemi Badenoch says his position “untenable”
June 30 plunges to 35%16%
The revelation that Mandelson’s appointment had been made despite a failed vetting check sparked immediate calls from the Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch for Starmer to resign, sending the “Yes” probability sharply lower.
Starmer publicly declares he was “absolutely furious” to learn Mandelson had failed security vetting before his appointment
June 30 jumps to 43%9%
Starmer’s admission of being misled intensified media scrutiny and opposition demands, lifting the “out‑by‑June 30” odds.
Mandelson is formally appointed U.S.
June 30 jumps to 45%10%
ambassador despite the earlier vetting denial, prompting immediate calls from opposition MPs for Starmer’s resignation
Starmer appoints Peter Mandelson as U.S.
June 30 surges to 48%25%
ambassador despite pending security vetting
Peter Mandelson officially begins as UK ambassador to the United States;
December 31 rises to 73%2%
media note the controversy surrounding his security clearance
Peter Mandelson formally assumes U.S.
December 31 rises to 48%4%
ambassadorship; opposition MPs launch immediate calls for Starmer’s resignation over the appointment
| Morgan McSweeney (Starmer’s chief of staff) resigns, citing responsibility for the Mandelson appointment | The departure of a senior adviser signalled internal turmoil, nudging
December 31 rises to 71%3%
| Morgan McSweeney (Starmer’s chief of staff) resigns, citing responsibility for the Mandelson appointment | The departure of a senior adviser signalled internal turmoil, nudging the
| Kemi Badenoch (Conservative leader) labels Starmer’s position “untenable” after the Mandelson scandal, calling for his immediate resignation | Opposition pressure reinforced
December 31 dips to 68%2%
| Kemi Badenoch (Conservative leader) labels Starmer’s position “untenable” after the Mandelson scandal, calling for his immediate resignation | Opposition pressure reinforced market expectations of a possible ouster, keeping the
Prime Minister Starmer faces a no‑confidence motion after the Mandelson row;
June 30 jumps to 62%5%
opposition parties and SNP leader Stephen Flynn demand his resignation, pushing “Yes” to a market high
Anneliese Dodds resigns as Development Minister in protest over Starmer’s aid cuts | The first senior ministerial resignation signalled internal dissent, nudging the “Yes”
December 31 jumps to 41%6%
Anneliese Dodds resigns as Development Minister in protest over Starmer’s aid cuts | The first senior ministerial resignation signalled internal dissent, nudging the “Yes” probability higher. |
| Prime Minister Keir Starmer publicly declares he was “staggered” to learn Mandelson failed vetting and vows to “walk away” from power if forced to resign | Starmer’s admission
December 31 jumps to 70%8%
| Prime Minister Keir Starmer publicly declares he was “staggered” to learn Mandelson failed vetting and vows to “walk away” from power if forced to resign | Starmer’s admission of being blindsided amplified speculation of a leadership crisis, driving the
Senior civil servant Sir Olly Robbins testifies that No 10 pressured the Foreign Office to approve Mandelson, prompting opposition leader Kemi Badenoch to label Starmer’s position
December 31 jumps to 71%14%
Senior civil servant Sir Olly Robbins testifies that No 10 pressured the Foreign Office to approve Mandelson, prompting opposition leader Kemi Badenoch to label Starmer’s position “untenable”
Foreign Office admits it overrode security advice and appointed Mandelson as US ambassador despite clearance denial, prompting Tory leader Kemi Badenoch to call Starmer’s position
June 30 surges to 57%22%
Foreign Office admits it overrode security advice and appointed Mandelson as US ambassador despite clearance denial, prompting Tory leader Kemi Badenoch to call Starmer’s position “untenable”
UK Security Vetting rejects Peter Mandelson’s clearance for the U.S.
June 30 jumps to 35%5%
ambassadorship, but the Foreign Office later over‑rules the decision
UK security vetting rejects Peter Mandelson for U.S.
December 31 surges to 60%16%
ambassadorship, but Starmer proceeds with appointment
UK Foreign Office admits it over‑ruled security vetting and approved Peter Mandelson as U.S.
December 31 drops to 44%6%
ambassador despite a “failed” clearance
Former Foreign Office chief Olly Robbins testifies that No 10 pressured the department to approve Peter Mandelson despite failed security vetting, sparking a wave of calls for
June 30 jumps to 34%8%
Former Foreign Office chief Olly Robbins testifies that No 10 pressured the department to approve Peter Mandelson despite failed security vetting, sparking a wave of calls for Starmer’s resignation
UK Foreign Office reveals Peter Mandelson failed security vetting for the U.S.
June 30 plunges to 35%16%
ambassadorship, sparking immediate calls for Starmer’s resignation
Olly Robbins tells MPs No 10 put “constant pressure” on the Foreign Office to approve Peter Mandelson’s ambassadorship despite security‑vetting concerns
June 30 jumps to 34%8%
The revelation that senior civil servants were pressured to ignore vetting warnings sparked a fresh call for Starmer’s resignation, pushing the market up.
| Olly Robbins (top Foreign Office civil servant) testifies that No 10 pressured the department to approve Peter Mandelson’s US‑ambassador appointment despite failed security
December 31 jumps to 55%7%
| Olly Robbins (top Foreign Office civil servant) testifies that No 10 pressured the department to approve Peter Mandelson’s US‑ambassador appointment despite failed security vetting | Revelation of direct No 10 interference raised doubts about Starmer’s control, lifting “Yes” odds. |
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions