Persistent US-Iran deadlock and Iranian restrictions via the newly formed Persian Gulf Strait Authority continue to throttle commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, sustaining market-implied odds of 71.5% against a return to normal traffic by June 30. As of mid-May 2026, daily vessel passages remain at roughly 5% of pre-February 2026 averages—around seven to nine ships versus 125–140—while more than 1,550 vessels and 22,500 mariners stay stranded amid elevated insurance premiums and routing uncertainty. Freight rates for Gulf-bound energy cargoes have tripled, reflecting sustained supply-chain friction and volatility in global oil and LNG benchmarks. Traders price in limited near-term de-escalation, with any normalization likely requiring verifiable diplomatic breakthroughs or full naval withdrawal before the end-of-June horizon.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$6,482,793 交易量
$6,482,793 交易量
2026-06-30
是
$6,482,793 交易量
$6,482,793 交易量
2026-06-30
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent US-Iran deadlock and Iranian restrictions via the newly formed Persian Gulf Strait Authority continue to throttle commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, sustaining market-implied odds of 71.5% against a return to normal traffic by June 30. As of mid-May 2026, daily vessel passages remain at roughly 5% of pre-February 2026 averages—around seven to nine ships versus 125–140—while more than 1,550 vessels and 22,500 mariners stay stranded amid elevated insurance premiums and routing uncertainty. Freight rates for Gulf-bound energy cargoes have tripled, reflecting sustained supply-chain friction and volatility in global oil and LNG benchmarks. Traders price in limited near-term de-escalation, with any normalization likely requiring verifiable diplomatic breakthroughs or full naval withdrawal before the end-of-June horizon.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
市場開放時間： Apr 13, 2026, 6:14 PM ET
交易量
$6,482,793結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Apr 13, 2026, 6:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent US-Iran deadlock and Iranian restrictions via the newly formed Persian Gulf Strait Authority continue to throttle commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, sustaining market-implied odds of 71.5% against a return to normal traffic by June 30. As of mid-May 2026, daily vessel passages remain at roughly 5% of pre-February 2026 averages—around seven to nine ships versus 125–140—while more than 1,550 vessels and 22,500 mariners stay stranded amid elevated insurance premiums and routing uncertainty. Freight rates for Gulf-bound energy cargoes have tripled, reflecting sustained supply-chain friction and volatility in global oil and LNG benchmarks. Traders price in limited near-term de-escalation, with any normalization likely requiring verifiable diplomatic breakthroughs or full naval withdrawal before the end-of-June horizon.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
交易量
$6,482,795結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Apr 13, 2026, 6:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent US-Iran deadlock and Iranian restrictions via the newly formed Persian Gulf Strait Authority continue to throttle commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, sustaining market-implied odds of 71.5% against a return to normal traffic by June 30. As of mid-May 2026, daily vessel passages remain at roughly 5% of pre-February 2026 averages—around seven to nine ships versus 125–140—while more than 1,550 vessels and 22,500 mariners stay stranded amid elevated insurance premiums and routing uncertainty. Freight rates for Gulf-bound energy cargoes have tripled, reflecting sustained supply-chain friction and volatility in global oil and LNG benchmarks. Traders price in limited near-term de-escalation, with any normalization likely requiring verifiable diplomatic breakthroughs or full naval withdrawal before the end-of-June horizon.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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