President Erdoğan’s May 2025 appointment of a ten-member legal commission to draft a new “civilian constitution” has sustained public advocacy into mid-2026, yet the ruling AKP-MHP coalition controls only about 321 of 600 parliamentary seats. Securing the 360 votes required to trigger a referendum remains the central obstacle, with no firm backing secured from the opposition or the DEM Party. Competing priorities, including the ongoing PKK peace process, have further slowed momentum. Traders therefore assign an 82% probability that no referendum announcement will occur by year-end, reflecting the persistent legislative arithmetic and procedural barriers despite continued preparatory work.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
16% 機率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
是
16% 機率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Erdoğan’s May 2025 appointment of a ten-member legal commission to draft a new “civilian constitution” has sustained public advocacy into mid-2026, yet the ruling AKP-MHP coalition controls only about 321 of 600 parliamentary seats. Securing the 360 votes required to trigger a referendum remains the central obstacle, with no firm backing secured from the opposition or the DEM Party. Competing priorities, including the ongoing PKK peace process, have further slowed momentum. Traders therefore assign an 82% probability that no referendum announcement will occur by year-end, reflecting the persistent legislative arithmetic and procedural barriers despite continued preparatory work.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
交易量
$6,170結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Erdoğan’s May 2025 appointment of a ten-member legal commission to draft a new “civilian constitution” has sustained public advocacy into mid-2026, yet the ruling AKP-MHP coalition controls only about 321 of 600 parliamentary seats. Securing the 360 votes required to trigger a referendum remains the central obstacle, with no firm backing secured from the opposition or the DEM Party. Competing priorities, including the ongoing PKK peace process, have further slowed momentum. Traders therefore assign an 82% probability that no referendum announcement will occur by year-end, reflecting the persistent legislative arithmetic and procedural barriers despite continued preparatory work.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$6,170結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Erdoğan’s May 2025 appointment of a ten-member legal commission to draft a new “civilian constitution” has sustained public advocacy into mid-2026, yet the ruling AKP-MHP coalition controls only about 321 of 600 parliamentary seats. Securing the 360 votes required to trigger a referendum remains the central obstacle, with no firm backing secured from the opposition or the DEM Party. Competing priorities, including the ongoing PKK peace process, have further slowed momentum. Traders therefore assign an 82% probability that no referendum announcement will occur by year-end, reflecting the persistent legislative arithmetic and procedural barriers despite continued preparatory work.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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