Turkey's ruling AKP has advanced preparatory work on a new civilian constitution since mid-2025, including a presidential commission and internal drafting efforts, yet lacks the parliamentary majorities required to trigger formal action. Reaching a referendum needs at least 360 votes in the 600-seat assembly, while bypassing one requires 400; the president's alliance holds insufficient seats and faces opposition resistance. Recent statements from party leaders and the parliament speaker have reiterated long-term ambitions for 2026–2027, but no referendum has been announced and polls indicate public division. With presidential and parliamentary elections set for 2028 and no immediate legislative pathway, traders assign low probability to meaningful movement before year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
16% 機率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
是
16% 機率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Turkey's ruling AKP has advanced preparatory work on a new civilian constitution since mid-2025, including a presidential commission and internal drafting efforts, yet lacks the parliamentary majorities required to trigger formal action. Reaching a referendum needs at least 360 votes in the 600-seat assembly, while bypassing one requires 400; the president's alliance holds insufficient seats and faces opposition resistance. Recent statements from party leaders and the parliament speaker have reiterated long-term ambitions for 2026–2027, but no referendum has been announced and polls indicate public division. With presidential and parliamentary elections set for 2028 and no immediate legislative pathway, traders assign low probability to meaningful movement before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
交易量
$6,226結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Turkey's ruling AKP has advanced preparatory work on a new civilian constitution since mid-2025, including a presidential commission and internal drafting efforts, yet lacks the parliamentary majorities required to trigger formal action. Reaching a referendum needs at least 360 votes in the 600-seat assembly, while bypassing one requires 400; the president's alliance holds insufficient seats and faces opposition resistance. Recent statements from party leaders and the parliament speaker have reiterated long-term ambitions for 2026–2027, but no referendum has been announced and polls indicate public division. With presidential and parliamentary elections set for 2028 and no immediate legislative pathway, traders assign low probability to meaningful movement before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$6,226結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Turkey's ruling AKP has advanced preparatory work on a new civilian constitution since mid-2025, including a presidential commission and internal drafting efforts, yet lacks the parliamentary majorities required to trigger formal action. Reaching a referendum needs at least 360 votes in the 600-seat assembly, while bypassing one requires 400; the president's alliance holds insufficient seats and faces opposition resistance. Recent statements from party leaders and the parliament speaker have reiterated long-term ambitions for 2026–2027, but no referendum has been announced and polls indicate public division. With presidential and parliamentary elections set for 2028 and no immediate legislative pathway, traders assign low probability to meaningful movement before year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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