Skip to main content
icon for 埃爾多安在2026年12月31日之前退出？
地緣政治·土耳其

埃爾多安在2026年12月31日之前退出？

icon for 埃爾多安在2026年12月31日之前退出？
地緣政治·土耳其

埃爾多安在2026年12月31日之前退出？

12月 31

12月 31

是

6% 機率
Polymarket

$612,176 交易量

是

6% 機率
Polymarket

$612,176 交易量

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ceases to be President of the Republic of Türkiye for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Erdoğan remains Turkey’s incumbent president under a system that schedules the next presidential election no later than May 2028, with his current term set to conclude then. The ruling AKP holds a parliamentary majority that has enabled measures weakening the main opposition CHP, including the 2025 disqualification and imprisonment of its leading figure, Istanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu. Persistent unconfirmed reports of the president’s health concerns have circulated since 2025 but lack official verification and have not triggered any announced resignation, incapacity proceedings, or snap election. Erdoğan has repeatedly stated plans to retire at the end of his term, while internal AKP discussions center on constitutional adjustments or early voting that would extend rather than shorten his tenure. No scheduled parliamentary votes, institutional deadlines, or diplomatic events before December 31, 2026, create credible pathways for removal. Traders therefore assign a 94.5 percent probability that he stays in office through year-end, reflecting the absence of near-term catalysts capable of altering the established timeline.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ceases to be President of the Republic of Türkiye for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$612,176
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Jul 24, 2025, 7:36 PM ET

結算方

0x157Ce2d67...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ceases to be President of the Republic of Türkiye for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ceases to be President of the Republic of Türkiye for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Erdoğan remains Turkey’s incumbent president under a system that schedules the next presidential election no later than May 2028, with his current term set to conclude then. The ruling AKP holds a parliamentary majority that has enabled measures weakening the main opposition CHP, including the 2025 disqualification and imprisonment of its leading figure, Istanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu. Persistent unconfirmed reports of the president’s health concerns have circulated since 2025 but lack official verification and have not triggered any announced resignation, incapacity proceedings, or snap election. Erdoğan has repeatedly stated plans to retire at the end of his term, while internal AKP discussions center on constitutional adjustments or early voting that would extend rather than shorten his tenure. No scheduled parliamentary votes, institutional deadlines, or diplomatic events before December 31, 2026, create credible pathways for removal. Traders therefore assign a 94.5 percent probability that he stays in office through year-end, reflecting the absence of near-term catalysts capable of altering the established timeline.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ceases to be President of the Republic of Türkiye for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$612,176
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Jul 24, 2025, 7:36 PM ET

結算方

0x157Ce2d67...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ceases to be President of the Republic of Türkiye for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

相關

icon for 澤連斯基是否會在2026年底前卸任烏克蘭總統？

澤連斯基是否會在2026年底前卸任烏克蘭總統？

7%
是
icon for 賴清德將於2026年12月31日前卸任台灣總統嗎？

賴清德將於2026年12月31日前卸任台灣總統嗎？

4%
是
icon for 莫迪會在2026年12月31日前下台嗎？

莫迪會在2026年12月31日前下台嗎？

8%
是

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"埃爾多安在2026年12月31日之前退出？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "埃爾多安會在2026年12月31日之前下台嗎？" at 6%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 6¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 6% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "埃爾多安在2026年12月31日之前退出？" has generated $612.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 24, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "埃爾多安在2026年12月31日之前退出？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "埃爾多安在2026年12月31日之前退出？" is "埃爾多安會在2026年12月31日之前下台嗎？" at just 6%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "埃爾多安在2026年12月31日之前退出？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.