UAE-Qatar diplomatic relations have remained stable following the 2021 Al-Ula reconciliation that ended the prior Gulf crisis, with embassies reopened and active bilateral mechanisms in place. The seventh session of their Joint Supreme Committee in May 2026 produced commitments to expanded cooperation on trade, security, and regional stability, reinforced by recent leader-level discussions on shared interests within the GCC framework. Traders assign only a 4.8% implied probability to severance this year because no verifiable triggers—such as renewed disputes over Islamist groups, Yemen policy divergences, or external alignments—have emerged, and both sides maintain structural incentives for coordination. While late-year shifts in Gulf rivalries or major external shocks could still alter the trajectory, current diplomatic and institutional patterns strongly support continuity through December 2026.