Olivia Rodrigo’s “The Cure” holds the strongest trader consensus at 55% implied probability in the Best Alternative category, driven by her song’s critical praise, strong streaming performance, and high-profile music video following its May release. The field remains tightly contested among the seven nominees, with Noah Kahan’s “The Great Divide” at 20% reflecting solid fan support but less crossover momentum than Rodrigo’s track. Lower odds for entries like Geese’s “Taxes,” Twenty One Pilots’ “Drag Path,” and collaborations such as MGK & Fred Durst’s “Fix Ur Face” highlight the category’s depth, where historical VMA voting has often favored established pop-adjacent alternative acts with recent visibility. Fan voting runs through September 25 ahead of the September 27 ceremony, leaving room for late shifts in sentiment based on final promotional pushes or social engagement.